In Ramstein, the Ukraine contact group agrees on the delivery of anti-aircraft defence, ammunition and the most modern weapons. Germany brakes at the Leopard 2 tank.
No Leopard decision in Ramstein
“They haven't made a decision on the leopards yet,” says US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at the conclusion of the day-long meeting in Ramstein. And by that he means the German government and its reluctance to deliver Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine. However, Austin replies to a journalist's question: “Germany is doing a lot”, for him the country is a reliable ally.
By that time, Polish Defense Minister Marius Blaszczak had already dictated to the media in his notebooks that he was convinced that a European coalition would come about to supply the German-made main battle tank for Ukraine. Before the meeting, Warsaw and other allies had increased the pressure on Berlin almost daily to agree to deliveries of main battle tanks.
Boris Pistorius (left), with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Oleksii Reznikov from Ukraine.
So: Decision postponed, also at what is now the eighth meeting of the Ukraine contact group at the US military base in Ramstein, Germany. Disappointing news for Kyiv. The delivery of German Leopard 2 main battle tanks, which has been so urgently demanded there since March 2022, must be carefully considered, said the new Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius: “This is a new type of measure that we would vote with it.”
No consensus among supporters
There could be a decision in one direction or the other shortly – but not on this day in Ramstein. The opinion of the 54 supporter countries of the “Ukraine Contact Group” as to whether the governments of the European Leopard 2 nations would jointly hand over the tank to Ukraine is “not uniform”, says Pistorius.
The German did not say exactly which supporter nations contribute to this inconsistent picture. Germany is – once again – perceived by most as a brake. However, shortly before the meeting, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that Germany could hand over the Leopard 2 to the Ukraine if the USA in turn sent the Abrams heavy battle tank to the Ukraine.
What does the Ukraine need Tanks from the west?
Just the day before, Great Britain had called for main battle tanks for Ukraine in a joint statement in the Estonian capital Tallinn with Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Denmark, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands and Slovakia. “The new level of required combat capability will only be achieved through combinations of main battle tank squadrons with anti-aircraft and anti-missile defenses,” the Tallinn statement said, “operating in tandem with divisional artillery groups, as well as other precision fire that will allow Russian logistics and attack command nodes in the occupied territories.”
Zelenskyj: No time to lose
At the start of the Ramstein meeting, the Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyj expressed his thanks for what had been done and what was now promised , further military aid to his country with a demand: “Hundreds of thanks are not hundreds of tanks.”
The people of his country had no time to lose. “Terror doesn't allow for any discussion,” says Zelenskyj. “The terror that burns down one city after another” while the “defenders of freedom run out of arms against him.” The Ukrainian president appealed to the supporter nations to speed up, meaning the supply of main battle tanks – and the government in Berlin.
Kyiv and most Western military observers are convinced that Russia is preparing its armed forces for another offensive by mobilizing more soldiers and ramping up weapons production, especially ammunition. According to the US think tank “Institute for the Study of War” (ISW), the greatest danger for Ukraine is a possible attack on the north of the country from neighboring Belarus.
Fighter jets from the Netherlands?
The latest aid package also contains completely different, possibly no less crucial weapons for Ukraine: two Patriot air defense systems, one from the USA and one from Germany. With its “Archer”, Sweden wants to deliver another artillery system, as well as “thousands of new artillery ammunition”, said the US Secretary of Defense after the Ramstein meeting.
The Netherlands, meanwhile, have announced they are looking into the delivery of F16 fighter jets – it would be the first western fighter jet for Ukraine. All with the aim of protecting civilians and the infrastructure from Russian rocket attacks. In addition, more Ukrainian soldiers are to be trained. Mainly by the USA at their base in Grafenwoehr, Germany, the US Chief of Staff Mark Milley announced in Ramstein.
US F16 fighter jet in Iraq
It is another qualitative leap in quality and mass of military hardware for Ukraine. This is particularly evident in the example of a missile that only came onto the armaments market last fall. Together with the US company Boeing, the Swedish arms manufacturer Saab has developed an artillery rocket that is said to cost only a fraction of the price of comparable US surface-to-air missiles. In Ramstein it was decided that Ukraine would receive this weapon system.
The missile has a range of 150 kilometers and can attack both stationary and moving targets, writes the British armaments information service “Janes Defence”. According to the Swedish manufacturer, it can be launched from a variety of launchers and configurations. Apparently also from the artillery systems that the West has so far sent to Ukraine.
Preparing for attacks on Crimea?
With a range of 150 kilometers, the Ukrainian army could reach targets roughly as far as the middle of the Russian-annexed Crimean Peninsula from the front line. The Russian armed forces are bombing Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, including from their bases in Crimea. According to a report in the “New York Times”, US President Joe Biden is said to have given up his reluctance to equip Ukraine with powerful weapons with which the Crimean Peninsula can be permanently attacked.
In Moscow, the spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin reacted to this report in the run-up to the Ramstein meeting and warned: “This would mean raising the conflict to a new level that will not be good for European security,” the news agency reports Reuters from a conversation with Putin spokesman Dmitri Peskov.
With these missiles, the Ukrainian army could also prepare its own offensive in the area south of the city of Zaporizhia and the recovery of the land bridge to Crimea captured by Russia in spring 2022 about the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol.
Ukraine could try to divide the Russian forces by pushing towards the coast
With the arms deliveries now agreed under the new Ramstein package, it is clear that the US allies in the Ukraine contact group have decided to supply the attacked country with the most modern and possibly decisive Western weapons. So that Ukraine can withstand another massive attack by Russia like in spring 2022 and liberate other parts of the country.
US general curbs expectations
However, in Ramstein, the top US military, Chief of Staff Mark Milley, put the brakes on excessive expectations. “I continue to maintain that it would be very, very difficult this year to militarily evict Russian forces from every inch of Russian-held Ukraine,” says Milley.
Does not believe in full liberation of Ukraine this year: US Chief of Staff Mark Milley
“It doesn't mean it won't happen either will, but it would be very, very difficult.” For the second year of the war in Ukraine, he assumes that the existing front will be stabilized and that Ukraine can carry out “a significant tactical or even operational offensive operation” in order to liberate “as much Ukrainian territory as possible”. Apparently Milley doesn't believe in a quick end to the war either – despite the military package for Ukraine now agreed in Ramstein.