Published August 24, 2021 at 10.07
Domestic. The Public Health Agency's new scenarios point to an increased spread of covid-19 during the autumn. The most important reasons are stated to be increased contacts in the population and the higher infectivity of the delta variant.
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The new scenarios that are now presented extend from 20 August to 20 November 2021 and are included in FHM's fifth interim report to the government.
All three scenarios point to an increased spread of infection during the autumn. More people are assumed to need inpatient and intensive care, but at significantly lower levels than before during the pandemic, as a large proportion of the adult population is now vaccinated.
At the same time, there are several uncertainty factors that can affect FHM calculations of care burden and spread of infection. The uncertainty is greater now than on previous occasions when the authority has presented its scenarios, which is illustrated by the very varying developments in different EU countries in recent times.
– This is partly due to the fact that much is still unknown about the virus. For example, it is not entirely clear how much more contagious the delta variant is. There is also a high risk of cluster outbreaks among unvaccinated groups. People's contact behavior and compliance with the recommendations also affect how the spread of infection develops, says Director General Johan Carlson in a statement.
To prevent the spread of the infection from accelerating, and work from home if possible “, according to FHM.
In total, approximately 6.6 million people in the population over the age of 18 have now been vaccinated with at least one dose and 5.1 million people with two doses.
– The Swedish Public Health Agency sees vaccination as the most important preventive measure. A high vaccination coverage against covid-19 is absolutely necessary to reduce the spread of infection, morbidity and other consequences on life and health. It is also a prerequisite for society to be able to return to normal, says CEO Johan Carlson.