The business climate Index falls in July, surprisingly sharply to the lowest level in six years. More and more Economists hold a slide into recession is possible.
In the boardrooms of the German economy getting worse and worse and the mood is spreading. More experts than ever to keep that’s why a recession is possible. Under the impression of the international trade dispute and of the feeble world economy by the Ifo Institute measured business climate fell in July to the lowest level since April 2013. The important German economic barometer fell by 1.8 to 95.7 points and is therefore still in free fall: It fell by ten Times in the past eleven months. The alarm sirens shrill, especially in the industry, the recession is spreading, according to the Ifo in all major sectors. Also about running the service sector in the worse mood: “The German economy is in troubled waters”, summed up by Ifo President Clemens Fuest.
The executives assessed their current business situation worse. Also, the Outlook for the next six months and into next year have been sceptical assessed. Germany, long the economic locomotive in the Euro Zone, is now visibly in the air: the business of The industry were so bad recently as it has been since 2012.
And accustomed to success, flagship industries are weakening: the car maker is expected for this year with a Minus of one per cent in the new business. The machine-builders expect a drop in production of two percent. In the Wake of the economic downturn will increase according to the Ifo Institute, the short-time work soon in such key industries.
“Batten down!”
DekaBank Economist Andreas Scheuerle pointed out that Germany is on the verge of a recession – two quarters of declining economic output. The company accounted for the leaks and not ordered so many goods. In addition, Mr. sche investment.
Also Ifo economic climate expert, Klaus Wohlrabe warned: “The German economy’s troubled times are imminent.” Gross domestic product shrank in the second quarter, well, after a plus of 0.4 percent for the start of the year. The data for the spring are expected to be in mid-August. “In the third quarter, it is likely to turn but then slightly Positive, boosted by the domestic economy.” Here is the private consumption for momentum concern, however, at the end of the boom, visible in the labour market. “The jobs miracle is weakening, and now after. The company are much more cautious with new hires.” Other Economists, a shrinking economy, even in the summer is possible, which is Germany in a recession would slip off.
Alexander Krüger of the Bankhaus LAMPE advised the view especially abroad: “Since it doesn’t look like a solution to the global trade conflicts, and the Brexit insecure, threatening the economy to tilt more down.” In particular, the unexplained Britain to leave the EU provides, according to the Ifo expert Wohlrabe for uncertainty: “Because we have Boris Johnson and his Cabinet, an increase in the probability for a hard Brexit.” The new British Prime Minister has to apply his people immediately after taking office, to a fair EU exit attuned. Such a mess-Brexit is a Ghost for the export-oriented German economy a shock.
hb/ul (rtr)