Published 26 March 2024 at 16.09
Economics. The recession bottoms out this year and towards the end of the year the economic recovery begins. This is according to the Economic Institute's latest forecast, which is published today.
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Sweden has been in a recession for a year now. According to KI, the recession hits the labor market more clearly this year and unemployment peaks at 8.4 percent.
Inflation has fallen back quickly recently and the decline will continue in 2024, according to the forecast. Measured by CPIF, inflation reaches 1.2 percent at the end of the year. The Riksbank therefore begins a series of interest rate cuts in June. The economy starts to recover at the end of the year, but it will take until 2026 before the recession is over.
Consumption will be an important driving force in the recovery. Lower interest rates and rising real wages mean that household consumption will grow relatively quickly from the end of 2024. At the same time, investments in, for example, defense mean that government consumption will grow significantly faster than normal, just as it is doing this year, writes KI in its forecast.
KI estimates that the budget space for 2025–2028 amounts to approximately SEK 130 billion, of which approximately SEK 40 billion is assumed to be used in 2025.