Published 7 November 2022 at 12.51
Economy. The state may be forced to add up to SEK 70 billion – more than an entire defense budget – to cover the Riksbank's losses.
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The Riksbank expects a fallback loss of SEK 65 billion in 2022.
The background is the Riksbank's controversial support purchase of bonds for SEK 700 billion during the corona crisis. The interest rates on these bonds have since increased sharply.
However, Handelsbanken's assessment is that the loss will be even worse than what the Riksbank has signalled. It may require “a multibillion-dollar injection from the treasury of around SEK 50-70 billion”, write Handelsbanken's economists, who call the loss “enormous”, in a comment.
The state may therefore be forced to push for more money to The Riksbank than the entire budget of the Swedish armed forces, which for 2022 is SEK 60 billion.
“We do not believe that the fiscal policy or the scope for reform in Sweden will be damaged in practice, even if certain key figures for 2023 may look worse on the paper. On the other hand, the Riksbank risks harsh public scrutiny with an increased need to prove the benefits of the QE program and that they really outweigh the costs,” Handelsbanken's economists write.