While the EU is arguing about gas solidarity, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is probably preparing to recapture Cherson in the south. The Dnieper region is as strategically important today as it was in World War II.
Western artillery pinpricks: Ukrainian soldiers near Kharkiv
These were crucial months in the Second World War in what was then Soviet Ukraine: in 1943, almost 80 years ago, the Red Army pushed the German Wehrmacht back across the Dnieper River, suffering enormous losses. Hitler's Germany and its Romanian allies had after the defeat From Stalingrad at the beginning of February 1943, the so-called Wotan Defense Line was initially held. By the beginning of November 1943, the Red Army was also able to establish itself over a length of 450 kilometers west of the river. On the Soviet side, during the months of fighting, 1, 2 million soldiers killed or injured.
Zelenskyj speaks of one million Ukrainian soldiers
This historic throwback may play a role in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's daily video messages today. The Russian attackers are often referred to as “racists” in Ukraine, i.e. “Russian fascists”. Selenskyj has been announcing a counter-offensive in the south of his country against the Russian occupiers around the Russian-occupied city of Cherson for weeks. He speaks of a troop strength of one million soldiers. This magnitude cannot be independently verified. The Russian army had up to 150,000 troops stationed in the region when the invasion began on February 24.
World War II: An attacked German Wehrmacht position outside Kharkiv on February 23, 1943
The outcome of the battle along the Dnieper, which is sometimes a kilometer wide in southern Ukraine, was a turning point 80 years ago – and it would probably be today too. Since the first days of the Russian invasion after February 24, Kremlin soldiers have occupied the southern Ukrainian city of Cherson, west of the Dnieper, with a population of just under 300,000. U.S. military expert Michael Kofman of the Research Program on Russian Studies at the Center for Naval Analyzes, a research center of the U.S. Navy, believes that with a successful counter-offensive at this point, the Ukrainians could make further offensives by the Russian army towards the port city of Odessa impossible.
49. Russian army in a precarious situation
In fact, the Ukrainian army is currently trying to set a strategic course for the further course of the war up to Force Fall.
Russian supplies cut off: Antonivka bridge near Kherson damaged by HIMARS missile fire
If Ukraine is successful, it could claim a similarly important victory as pushing back the Russian army from the city of Kharkiv in the north of the country. If the Russian armed forces resist, it would be a severe blow to Ukraine, which could also cost it a lot of support in the West. However, the government in Kyiv can count on the support of numerous citizens of Kherson. At the beginning of Russia's war of aggression, people demonstrated daily against the Russian occupiers in front of the administrative headquarters of the Cherson region, which has a total of more than one million inhabitants, and shouted at the Kremlin soldiers: “Get lost” and “Cherson is Ukrainian”.
< p>In late July, the Ukrainian army damaged three important bridges near Kherson, which is occupied by Russia's 49th Army. Until then, the Russian soldiers in Cherson were supplied with supplies via these bridges. Apparently the decisive factor was the second nightly HIMARS attack from July 26 to 27, 2022 on the most important of the three river crossings: the Antonivka Bridge at Cherson is more than a thousand meters long.
The regional capital of Kherson has been occupied since the beginning of Russia's campaign
It was so badly damaged that it has become impassable for heavy equipment. Much of the information provided by the warring parties cannot be verified independently. However, videos on social networks after the bombing show a Russian pontoon ferry replacing the bridge connection. This alternative would be an easy target for the Ukrainians. The British Ministry of Defense has now reported for the first time that the Ukrainian “counteroffensive in Cherson is gaining momentum”.
According to this British intelligence report, the Russian 49th Army in Kherson is now “highly vulnerable”. What's more: “The city of Cherson (…) is now practically cut off from the other occupied territories. Its loss would significantly hamper Russia's attempts to present the occupation as a success,” the authors write. Further social media videos are said to show how the Russian side is already reacting and apparently transporting heavy equipment in the direction of Cherson.
Who controls Cherson?
Mychajlo Podoliak is very self-confident in the capital Kyiv. In a DW interview, the adviser to President Zelenskiy's head of cabinet referred to the military success around Snake Island in the Black Sea. The small island off the coasts of Ukraine and Romania, from which the sea route to the Bosphorus can be controlled. The island was abandoned by the Russian army after heavy Ukrainian shelling in late June. According to the Kremlin as a “gesture of good will”. Now Moscow will “understand that it is necessary to show another 'gesture of goodwill' and leave Kherson,” said Podoliak, referring to the shelling of the important road bridge near Kherson.
But the Russian army is also capable of targeted strikes in the southern region. So Simon Ostrovsky from the American TV channel ABC confirmed after a visit to the region of several successful demolitions of warehouses of the Ukrainian army in the city of Mykolaiv. From here the Ukrainians organize supplies for the front near Cherson. “Russia's missile attacks on Ukraine appear to be targeted,” Ostrovsky said, “and they are causing great damage not only to the civilian population but also to the (Ukrainian, ed.) war effort.”
For the US military expert Michael Kofman is open to the outcome. “I think there is an open window for Ukraine right now.” The army has the clout to recapture Kherson, but he also points out that it will be difficult “if Ukraine cannot use the element of surprise”.< /p>
The Cherson region is of great strategic importance for Ukraine, including economically. In addition to wheat, sunflower oil in particular is produced here for the world market. According to Ukrainian data, Russia stole half a million tons of grain, tens of thousands of tons of sunflower oil and fertilizer here. With the help of GPS trackers, Kyiv was also able to prove that the Kremlin troops and Russian criminals stole high-quality agricultural machinery from here. Without the fertile region in the south, the Ukraine would hardly be able to survive to oust Russia from the land connection to the Crimean Peninsula, which has been illegally annexed since 2014. In one of his daily video messages, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy recently said that the turning point the Ukrainians were longing for had now been reached – and called for more heavy weapons from the West.
Collaboration: Anna Fil