Chancellor Scholz receives Serbian President Vucic. It's about sanctions against Russia, but also about Kosovo. His Premier Kurti is also coming to Berlin.
It should be a long and uncomfortable day for Aleksandar Vucic in Berlin. There are many controversial topics on the agenda. The newly re-elected Serbian President actually wanted to give a “speech” to his people last week, now he has postponed it to next Friday (05/06/2022).
Will Serbia reconsider its relationship with Russia?
The focus of the Berlin visit is the question of whether the Balkan country wants to give up its pro-Russian stance. Around two-thirds of Serbs see Russia as their most important ally. Right-wing splinter parties regularly meet for rallies and loudly justify the Russian war against Ukraine.
Serbia gets around 90 percent of its gas from Gazprom, currently at the “brother tariff” of 270 dollars per 1000 cubic meters. On the market, gas costs three to four times as much. Particularly spicy: The new delivery price is currently being negotiated. Inflation in Serbia is more than 9 percent and a Russian gas embargo would nullify Vucic's promise of prosperity to his compatriots.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz should be familiar with these considerations. Nevertheless, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, understanding for the Serbian seesaw policy between East and West, Moscow and Brussels has dwindled in Berlin. The Vucic formula – we condemn the breach of Ukraine's territorial integrity, but reject any sanctions against Moscow – no longer seems tenable.
Will Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic turn his back on Russia?
The overture to a possible turnaround in Belgrade came last Thursday (April 28th, 2022) via the Serbian tabloid press, which Vucic and his Progressive Party keep on a short leash and indirectly finance. On the front pages, the newspapers, which otherwise uncritically idolize Putin, sharply attacked the Russian president's comparison between the Donbass and the breakaway former Serbian province of Kosovo.
Kosovo, the “most expensive Serbian word”< /h2>
Olaf Scholz has also invited Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti to Berlin, but meets him separately from Vucic. The EU special envoy for the Kosovo issue, Miroslav Lajcak, is also present. Under his leadership, Vucic and Kurti will have to look each other in the eye again after almost a year of radio silence.
Neither of them should be happy about it. The dialogue on the so-called normalization of relations has been on hold for a long time. Belgrade does not recognize Kosovar independence and insists on the formation of a semi-autonomous body (ZSO) of the Serb-majority municipalities in Kosovo, which nine years ago agreed. Kurti rejects this and reiterates that any talks with Belgrade must lead to mutual recognition.
Support from Berlin: Annalena Baerbock visits Prime Minister Albin Kurti
Now Scholz apparently wants to show that the Kosovo problem will not be forgotten during the Ukraine war. On the contrary: Berlin wants to fill the gaps in the Balkans where Russian influence is noticeable. The Kosovo question is likely to be the greatest challenge for the German government: After all, Moscow is viewed as a protecting power in Belgrade – the Russian right of veto in the World Security Council guarantees that Kosovo will remain outside the United Nations.
Bosnia: Achilles' heel for stability in the Balkans
The Federal Government also wants to show in other ways how important the Western Balkans are in its eyes. The Greens politician Manuel Sarrazin has been appointed special representative for the region, and in Bosnia the former federal minister Christian Schmidt (CSU) holds the important position of high representative. According to the Dayton Peace Agreement (1995), he can enact or override laws himself.
Former Minister of Agriculture Christian Schmidt: High Representative for Bosnia-Herzegovina since 2021
Schmidt does that also – especially in view of the efforts of the Republic of Srpska (Serbian republic in Bosnia) to become more and more independent. Milorad Dodik, the particularly pro-Putin leader of the Bosnian Serbs, regularly threatens secession.
So Dodik is also becoming a problem for Vucic, who has presented himself in the West as a “stability factor” for years and is allowed to secure his power at home with an iron fist. In Berlin, Vucic is expected to distance himself from Dodik, which should make an impression on many voters in the Republic of Srpska. After all, Belgrade and not Sarajevo is considered the capital.
West unpopular, but still more important?
Although he himself has been fueling anti-Western resentments in Serbia for years, Vucic knows that his country urgently needs to move closer to the EU. His economic policy is also oriented towards Brussels. Around two-thirds of Serbian exports go to the EU, while Russia is a marginal market with around four percent. German companies alone employ around 70,000 people in Serbia, attracted by cheap labor and lavish state subsidies.
In the most recent Bundestag resolution calling for the delivery of arms to Ukraine, the federal government demands that the EU pre-accession aid for those candidates who “evade” Western sanctions be “examined”. This probably also means Serbia.
Vucic has emphasized several times that Western pressure on Serbia has increased. Which sanctions Belgrade could possibly follow is still completely open at the moment.
Is fast accession to the EU realistic?
Like all Western Balkan countries, Serbia is officially on the way to the EU. But Balkan experts have been describing it like this for years: the EU acts as if it wants to absorb Europe's south-east, and Serbia acts as if it wants to reform.
Prospects of joining? EU Commission President von der Leyen at the Western Balkans Summit in Slovenia in 2021
With the Ukraine war, there is a glimmer of hope that things could go faster after all. Scholz has emphasized several times that the EU must keep its integration promises to the Balkan states. But with Emmanuel Macron, a well-known brake on expansion is still sitting in the Elysee Palace. The admission of new countries is not particularly popular among Western European voters either.
For this reason, Vucic's critics at home fear that the Serbian ruler may continue to run his de facto one-party state autocratically without loud criticism from the West. That was also the case in the times of Angela Merkel: Stability in the Balkans always came before compliance with democratic standards.