When BASF, the largest chemical company in the world, its profit expectations herunterdimmt so drastically, then the alarm signal for the German economy, is Henrik Böhme sure.
Profit warning is one of the misleading German economic terms. Because it is not warned of a profit a company could make, but before that it makes less or no profit. It should really be called a loss warning. But no matter: such A profit warning at the beginning of the week by the German chemical company BASF. This is not just any group, but the largest chemical company in the world, with 122,000 employees around the globe. If such a company raises its forecast for the current fiscal year to such a drastic degree that it is expected with a profit slump of as much as 30 percent – then you should actually take all of the red lamps.
Why? Because a chemical feel group first, if it goes the other bad. And so a chemical company has customers in many or even almost all industries. In the car industry, for example, to providing coatings and plastics. There, BASF justified his warning, were the global decline in Growth is particularly strong. A further justification: The global trade conflicts. Who thought still, the whitefish will be taught again with the next Tweet from Mr. President, all is well again – now Better. A real solution is not in sight, but the damage is apparently already huge. Because if companies fear something like the devil the Holy water, then it is uncertainty.
Henrik Böhme, DW-business editorial
The evil R-word
Now you can talk to a recession-induced. But it is not just BASF. The bad news from the German economy to be more, practically every day a new danger, dräut. The orders for the German industry continue to decline. The mood in the company, turns into Negative. The Munich-based Ifo Institute for economic research, the feel of the company regularly take the pulse, had to spread this bad news the other day, garnished with the evil R-word: The export-oriented manufacturing sector (is it a quarter of the German value-added) was in a state of recession, according to the researchers. The German machinery manufacturers – in addition to the car manufacturers, the second major pillar of the economy in this country, expect for the year, a decrease of two percent in production.
Prior to BASF and other companies, with the horror of news came around the corner: Siemens has a “unexpectedly weak order intake,” the industrial group Thyssenkrupp analysts expect to soon with a profit warning. At the same time reports on planned layoffs are piling up: BASF wants to cap 6000 Points; competitor, Bayer has already made some time ago to 12,000 Jobs up for grabs, also at Siemens, Thyssenkrupp, Volkswagen, the fat years are over, apparently. It is bracing itself for a veritable storm, of the wind.
Back to normality?
The good after the many bad news: The German labour market is in such a robust Constitution, that he can withstand the current wave is. The number of registered applications for short-time work has increased in recent weeks. This means that Many companies are not discharged only if really necessary. Many try to keep using the Instrument of short-time work experts, the you so have to fight hard. And many professionals, they should be dismissed, should easily get elsewhere.
The short-time work has helped the German economy, by the way, after the severe recession of the year 2009 (as a result of the world financial crisis, the economy had plummeted to five percent) to quickly find back in the trace. And: Of such a dramatic decline in the world economy is far from that. After years of economic boom, with a partially overheated German economy, a Phase of normalization now follows in the best case. To cycles of To – and downturn include. Really bad news to sound different.