A Tsunami at the Indonesian coast has led to a large number of dead and injured. Geoscientists Jörn Lauterjung conversation explained in the DW, why the authorities have not with a Tsunami expected.
DW: Has initiated this disaster in the Sundastraße, about 100 kilometers West of the Indonesian capital, Jakarta, in any way?
Jörn Lauterjung: in All probability, the Tsunami was triggered by the eruption of the volcano Anak Krakatau. Although we have measured previously volcanic and seismic activities. But the prediction that it comes to a Tsunami, is very difficult to make.
Why didn’t the early warning system?
The early warning system focuses on earthquake. For the simple reason, because 90 percent of all Tsunamis that we observe are triggered by a strong earthquake with a Magnitude of 6.5 to 7 or even greater. In the case of minor seismic activity, we have this time is measured, it’s not reading the early warning system. Because otherwise it would give too many false alarms. And because of the normally lower level of seismic activity to trigger a Tsunami.
“The 2004 Tsunami was triggered by a strong earthquake, a volcano” – geoscientists Jörn Lauterjung
Would you say that you would have to put down after the events of now the level of 6.5 or makes no sense?
No, that makes no sense at all. Because we would measure seismic activity in these Magnitude of 4 to 5 almost every day in Indonesia, in various Places and to very many false alarms. Once again: Almost all of the Tsunamis that we observe are triggered by a strong earthquake and only about ten percent of all Tsunamis of volcanic activities or landslides. That is why we have set the threshold so high.
Do you think that there may be descendants in the next days?
No, I don’t think so.
The Sundastraße is a Strait between the Indonesian Islands of Sumatra and Java
What do you advise the people?
This is a very difficult question to answer. Almost exactly three months ago, on 28.September, was the Sulawesi-Tsunamimit over 2,000 Victims of a Tsunami that has been triggered by landslides. I want to say: You can explain that in the next few months or years, only the people a lot, to increase your Knowledge. In order to understand that such cases can always happen again. That there is no one hundred percent security, even if it is an early warning system.
Her conclusion is: Such disasters in the future prevent?
So that was the intention of the early warning system. It was clear that catastrophic events with the wounded and the dead can pass. An early warning system seeks to minimize the damage, or the catastrophe. But we will avoid it.
Jörn Lauterjung is a geoscientist at the German research centre for Geosciences (GFZ).
The Interview was conducted by Oliver Pieper.