Satisfied with the current situation and more optimistic expectations: The mood in the boardrooms of the German economy has brightened considerably in August, in a surprisingly clear way.
The business climate Index rose from 101,7 to 103.8 points, as the Munich-based Ifo Institute announced on Monday its monthly survey of around 9,000 managers. Economists had expected to 101,9 points. “The German economy is in a summer high,” said Ifo President Clemens Fuest. “In addition to a strong domestic economy, the weapon wears down to the trade conflict with the United States to better mood.” The most important early indicator for the German Business cycle has deteriorated this year because of the trade conflict between the US, EU, China and other countries significantly.
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Despite the on-going trade dispute with the United States, the Bundesbank is confident that the German economy confirmed its strong Form: they, however, warns against the growing competition from China. (23.07.2018)
“That was a whopper of a positive Surprise from Munich,” said Uwe Burkert, chief economist of the LBBW, “we had expected as a reaction to the Trump/Juncker Deal with a moderately positive reaction of the business mood. These early indicators, however, had no such strong recovery”. Such a sharp increase in the monthly comparison, there was last updated in December, 2014.
His colleague Alexander Krüger of the Bankhaus LAMPE said: “The global trade dispute has not turned out to be so far, as a mood killer. Mood side much for a continuation of robust economic growth.” The dynamics of the exception of year 2017 will not be reached, is not a flaw. The environment will stay for the ECB prepares to take a key interest rate, turning more to discuss, the Economist.
Managers look to the future with confidence
The executives assessed their current business situation this time in the monthly survey better, the Outlook for the next six months.
Consumer and construction boom stimulated the economy recently. Thus, Europe’s biggest economy grew in the second quarter by 0.5 percent, after it had passed to the beginning of the year to 0.4 percent. Because of risks such as a Flare-up of the trade dispute between the EU and the United States closer to the EU exit of great Britain or of the currency crisis in Turkey, many experts expect but with a slower pace in the second half of the year. The German gross domestic product is expected to rise in 2018, with just under two per cent weaker than in the previous two years, each with 2.2 percent.
ul/hb (rtr, afp)