The consumption desire of the consumers and business investment to keep the German economy Running. The growth in the spring is surprisingly strong.
(Updated version of 13.00 MSZE)
The German economy has increased in the second quarter of their speed in spite of international turbulence stronger than expected. The gross domestic product (GDP), increased compared to the first three months of 2018 by 0.5 percent, the Federal statistics office in Wiesbaden announced on the basis of the first data.
The editorial recommends
Less orders for German industry
A Minus of four percent in a month – the German industry has recorded in June, significantly fewer orders than in the previous month. The order intake declined as strong as since one and a half years. (06.08.2018)
Bundesbank: economy remains stable
Despite the on-going trade dispute with the United States, the Bundesbank is confident that the German economy confirmed its strong Form: they, however, warns against the growing competition from China. (23.07.2018)
IMF: Possible real estate bubble a risk for the German economy
The International monetary Fund expects Germany’s economy has developed well. A concern of protectionism in the United States and the real estate prices in German cities, however, are. (05.07.2018)
Economic researcher: “Storm is coming”
Still, the German economy is buzzing. But the escalating trade dispute between the United States and China, the experts are more cautious looking ahead. Because there are still other risks, for example, the Brexit. (19.06.2018)
At the beginning of the year, the economy had grown, according to the latest Figures by 0.4 percent, or slightly more than initially calculated. Economists had expected a slight recovery in the spring, because of the dampening special factors, such as, for example, the strong wave of Flu played at the beginning of the year no longer matter.
Consumption growth
Was the growth in Europe’s largest economy from April to June, among other things, by the ongoing consumption of pleasure of the consumer. The Federal citizens, according to the GfK consumer researchers are more in a buying mood. The historically good position on the labour market and wage growth provide a good atmosphere. The citizens expect the CSF, with higher income, and are therefore willing to spend money for major purchases.
“Thanks to the good work and wage development, private consumption for the economy is the Central pillar,” said Economist Andreas Scheuerle of Dekabank. Especially in troubled times like these, in which trade conflicts, sanctions and populist, a threat to the external economic development is most represented, this is reassuring.
The state spends more
The consumption expenditure of General government, including social benefits and salaries of employees, also rose. And companies invested a little more in equipment, buildings and other facilities as in the first quarter.
Foreign trade is no impetus came, however, because imports increased more than exports.
The German chambers of industry and Commerce (DIHK), said that the Figures were “no worries”. The ongoing trade disputes “, there is always more to a deterioration in the international environment,” said chief Executive Martin Wansleben. Therefore, the economy needs to do policy, so that the investment boom is reinforcing. Important about a Reform of the corporate tax.
Similar to the foreign trade Association BGA said. Although the continuing economic boom in Germany, a “phenomenon” – “the conflicts around us not to take, but the shops anyway,” said the Association. However, this is not a reason to weigh in safety, because such a development could tear off “abruptly when disputes and trade conflicts escalate”. The company needed backing by the policy – for example, in the case of corporate taxation.
Growth course continues in the full year
The German economy remains according to the estimates of Economists in the full-year growth rate. Finally, the experts reckoned, however, with a smaller Plus than first expected – mainly because of the US-fueled trade conflicts. Punitive tariffs and barriers to trade could make the export-oriented German economy.
“As things Stand today, that the burdens for the global economy due to the trade conflict is still manageable. Also the risks emanating from the crisis in Turkey, the German economy is low,” said Andreas Rees of the Italian Bank Unicredit.
Bank economists and economic research institutes have recently lowered their economic forecasts for the year as a whole, in part, to just under two per cent. “The German economy is continuing its Expansion in slow pace,” said Ifo chief Clemens Fuest recently. In the past year they had risen to 2.2 percent, the biggest increase in six years. Economists assume that private consumption will continue to drive in this year, the economy significantly.
The ZEW Index below long-term average
The Index of the Mannheim centre for European economic research (ZEW) for August rose by eleven points to minus 13.7 points, such as the Institute announced on Tuesday. The much-watched indicator was still significantly under its long-term average of 23 points. The Outlook for the German economy are now “significantly less favourable than half a year ago,” said ZEW President, Achim Wambach.
The Eurozone economy keeps pace of growth
The economy in the Eurozone has been able to maintain their pace of growth in the spring, surprisingly. As the statistics office Eurostat in Luxembourg on Tuesday announced on the Basis of a second estimate, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter by 0.4 percent, the economic performance of the first quarter. Thus, a first estimate has been revised upwards. At the end of July, Eurostat reported for the months of April to June, a growth rate of 0.3 percent.
Many economists were surprised by this development. They had expected a confirmation of the first estimate. In comparison to the previous year, Eurostat reported for the second quarter increase in GDP of 2.2 percent. This was also slightly above expectations of analysts.
ul/hb (dpa, rtr, afp)