The industrialized countries organization OECD is more optimistic than the Federal government, recommends to the reduction of the German Surplus in the current account, and also has a piece of advice for the ECB.
The organization is predicting in your on Wednesday, in Paris, presented the economic Outlook for the German economy, a sustained upswing. The gross domestic product (GDP) will grow this year by 1.7 percent, said the OECD. In 2018 it is expected to be 2.0 percent.
Thus, the organization is more optimistic than the Federal government, the trust of the local economy in 2017, only a Plus of 1.5, and for 2018 from 1.6 percent. The low unemployment and higher government expenditures will promote from the point of view of the OECD private consumption.
“Low interest rates and immigration are expected to support residential investment, business investment, however tightening is only expected to grow slowly,” says the report. Exports benefit from the point of view of the OECD, strong demand from Asia and the US, will weaken, however, if the effect of the depreciation of the Euro fades away, the last time, and the growth of Imports in China subsides.
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Surpluses
Also in the international the criticism concerning the German Surplus in the current balance of the organization, it recommends reforms to open the services sector, moreover, investment in the infrastructure. These steps are suitable to reduce the large current account surplus.
The EU Commission also recommends that the largest economy in the EU to invest to strengthen through financial policy instruments of the domestic demand, and more. In the current account, all other Transfers with foreign countries are included in addition to the trading of goods – of services to development assistance.
The world economy is recovering
The world economy is likely to win, according to the OECD in the coming months momentum. “After five years of weak growth, we will finally see the light at the end of the tunnel,” said OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría on Wednesday in Paris. The organization raised its economic forecast for this year slightly: it now expects global growth of 3.5 percent. This is 0.2 percentage points more than expected in March.
For 2018, the OECD continues to expect a Plus of 3.6 percent. In the past year, the world economy had grown by 3.0 per cent. Gurría said the economic recovery was still too weak to ensure a tangible improvement of the living conditions in all OECD countries. Include the organization’s 35 member States, especially developed countries.
Monetary policy: Not to brake sharply
In spite of the economic recovery in the Euro area, the OECD, the European Central Bank (ECB) advises that its zero interest rate policy for the time being to maintain. “We do not believe that there is currently need for action by the ECB. You would be well advised to keep their course, as the risks are very high,” said OECD expert Christian Kastrop on Wednesday in Paris. From the point of view of the OECD, monetary policy stimulus should remain supportive until the Inflation “rises clearly and permanently” in the direction of the ECB’s Target of just under two percent.
In the next year, the ECB could begin to tighten monetary policy and asset purchases gradually. It would also be possible, a gradual termination of the current interest-rate policy. In particular, the negative Deposit rate could be raised according to the OECD, towards the end of 2018. This Penalty rate need to pay banks if you overnight Parking excess liquidity at the ECB. He is currently at minus 0.4 percent.
In the light of the brighter economic prospects, the ECB will dare according to experts, on Thursday, a small step to change its monetary policy. The monetary authorities are likely to designate on their Council meeting in the Estonian capital, Tallinn, is probably the risks to economic growth as balanced and therefore more confident on the economy. Also, Changes in the interest rate Outlook are also conceivable.
who/bea (dpa, rtr)