Economy
Chefs look terrified in the new year
The mood in the top echelons in January surprisingly clouded. Despite China Worries and the decline of the oil prices is expected, the Bundesbank in Germany is still a growing economy.
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Ifo-business climate decreased (25.01.2016)
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Ifo-business climate dropped
The German economy has a bad start to the year of 2016 laid: The mood in their top echelons continued to deteriorate in January in the face of many international hotspots are surprisingly strong. The Barometer for the business climate fell from 108,6 meters in the previous month on 107,3 points and thus the second month in a row, as the Munich-based Ifo Institute on Monday to his survey among 7000 managers announced. Thus fell the Ifo business climate index to its lowest level since February 2015. Many experts had previously worked with a less significant decrease is expected.
The reason for the case of the most important German Frühindikators, was mainly due to the anxious look forward to the future. The managers judged the situation just a tad worse, the Outlook for the next six months, however, noticeably more pessimistic than the last. “The German economy looks scared into the new year,” said Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn. Especially in the manufacturing industry, but also in the construction industry, for service providers and in retail trade worsened the mood of the Manager. Only in wholesale improved.
China, emerging markets and financial markets to press the mood
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“The financial markets intimidate the businessman”, commented the chief economist of development Bank KfW, Jörg Zeuner, in view of the recent turbulence on the stock markets. But also the weaker global economy makes you Worry.
“The emerging economy is still weak,” said DekaBank Economist Andreas Scheuerle. “The drop in Oil price helps the Binnenbranchen, but the export sectors are suffering from the slump in demand and the Ölländer.” It waxes the concern that the low Oil price is also a reflection of a generally weak global economy.
Consumer work, in contrast,
More optimistic than the entrepreneur looks at the Bundesbank in the future. In your opinion, gives the persistent Oil-price decline of the German economy is expected to grow momentum. The Bundesbank points out in its Bulletin of Monday, that consumers through lower fuel and Heating costs, more money for consumption, in the bag. The strengthened purchasing power would mean a tailwind for the domestic economy. Also indicated new orders from the end of the year, that the industrial economy soon attract likely. “So are the beginning of opportunities for stronger growth in economic activity”, as the economists of the Bundesbank.
Other experts trust the German economy this year, a growth on the previous year’s level of 1.7 per cent. As the reason is also the good buying mood of the consumer, which will be nourished by a Rekordbeschäftigung, rising wages and the discharge by low energy prices.
Jörg Zeuner, KfW indicates that the majority of leading indicators in a different direction than the Ifo Index would show. “In Germany a strong indication of sustained growth: employment, household income and demand to rise.” The trade show stable. “The current weakness of global trade is not a harbinger of a global economic downturn, and in China will continue to create new jobs”, says Zeuner. It is now important, the few battered but major emerging economies to stabilize, and the Kreditkanäle for companies to hold open.
The decline in the Ifo business climate index is long overdue, believes Alexander Krüger of the Bankhaus Lampe. He makes sure the murky Outlook for the global economy responsible, which is now also the Ifo business climate could have achieved. “But we should not make Worries about a crash of the German economy can be derived. The tailwind of the industry to the gross domestic product in the next few months are relatively small. The German growth remains to Furthermore, there is a Konsumstory.”
Hans Werner Sinn, leaves soon, the Ifo-Institute
Only a few times is Hans Werner Sinn, the business confidence Index, released monthly, to announce. In March, after his 68. Birthday, he will be the Munich-based Ifo Institute leave, that he spent 17 years has led. In this time he made the Ifo-Institute to one of the internationally most well-known economic institutions of Germany. Since 1972, determined the Ifo business climate index is regarded as the most important leading indicator for the German economy.
Sense is the most influential and most quoted German Economists counted. According to him, the President of the centre for European economic research (ZEW), Clemens Fuest, the management of the Ifo Institute.
iw/ul (rtr, dpa, afp)