Greece
“Tsipras has a lot of Machtinstinkt proven”
For a year ruled in Athens the Syriza party of Alexis Tsipras at the top.But his popularity declines, the political future depends on the success of reforms, says political scientist Lazaros Miliopoulos.
Deutsche Welle: Syriza and Prime Minister Tsipras have been for almost a year in Power. What is the interim balance sheet?
Lazaros Miliopoulos: Syriza began as an immature, inexperienced, amateurish new force on the political Firmament. A majority of the Greek people put a mixture of Sparüberdruss and wounded Pride in Syriza hopes and calculus. Both stelte at the end as painfully unrealistic. Of a Majority of the voters was also the new government – which, mind you, not only from the left, Syriza, but also from the right-wing Anel – not only as a Symbol of Rebellion, but also the national self-assertion of the Greek people understood. This is a feeling of Syriza as from Anel after forces was promoted. It was against everything that is not on the line of the so-called “no”camp against the “Memorandum policy” was, in a polarising manner denounced.
After initial enthusiasm saw Syriza finally, with a hard political and economic reality faced and zerstritt inwardly rapidly, after it became clear that Tsipras more and more as power-politically savvy politicians turned out, he is the longtime leader of his party is already in the Small had been. The result: the “Memorandum policy” was after six months of interruption not only resumed, but has even intensified.
Prime Minister Tsipras has many of his campaign promises have not been redeemed. Accordingly, also sink his poll numbers. Can he the rudder to alter course?
Prime Minister Tsipras has in his entire political career very much Machtinstinkt proved. It is quite be trusted, that he is the rudder again to turn that around. But as long as the crisis in Greece persists – which, under his management, is not unlikely – it will be on time is always harder for him.
Scientist, Lazaros Miliopoulos
With the politician Kyriakos Mitsotakis at the helm of the conservative New democracy, Tsipras has become a serious competitor. The surveys show. Provides Mitsotakis is actually a danger for Tsipras?
With the choice of Mitsotakis to ND Chairman, is the danger for Tsipras actually grown. In the short term, shows the possible weakening of Tsipras in the recent Umfragewerten, the choice of Mitsotakis for Syriza even more clearly than previously are dropped. This development certainly has deeper reasons: From Mitsotakis rival candidates Meimarakis would Tsipras easily as a politician a “fresh” younger Generation can settle what since the crisis of great symbolic significance in Greece and in the foreseeable future will remain so. Also would Meimarakis in a very important point – the Staatsgläubigkeit of Syriza – not so much as an Anti-Tsipras will be able to benefit as Mitsotakis, the now will do with his marktliberalen course, without question, a clear content counter. That Mitsotakis of an old Greek political dynasty belongs to, can Tsipras also hardly be exploited, since the reputation of Syriza as a party with a “white vest” due to aufgeflogenen cases of nepotism in its own ranks suffered major damage. To this extent, it is too early, here’s a safe assessment.
After successful completion of the first Review of the new utility, is also the discussion about the Schuldentragfähigeit start. How could there be the compromise look like?
It is a further extension of the repayment terms, Zinskürzungen, Forbearance, and accounting Tricks that amount to the latter according to the Motto: “We expect us the debt nicely for debt service rather than debt”. If long term, lower real economic growth rates or lower Primärüberschüsse be achieved as planned, even the discussion about a “real haircut” back to the ride.
After the turbulent times of the past few years, is in the Greek-German relations a little peace. This has certainly also with the refugee crisis to do that currently, everything is overshadowed. Do you believe that the Grexit debate again flare up and relationships also impact?
This could definitely happen. However, it is enough outside of Greece not more, that the discussion about a “real haircut” back to the road, so that the Grexit again the public opinion. It is only when the refugee crisis again loses its sharpness, is Grexit there a defining theme. This is in view of the threatening Dimension of the refugee crisis but unlikely. A “real haircut” could then suddenly quieter and quieter debate. On the other hand, it is not excluded that the issue in Greece new urgency wins, such as if Varoufakis in the active policy should return. But in the thing it is so: The more Greece with structural reforms progress, economic growth comes back and Primärüberschüsse be generated, the less probable is a Grexit-debate recur.
The interview was conducted by Konstantinos Symeonidis
Lazaros Miliopoulos (40) is a political scientist at the University of Bonn. His areas of expertise are, among others, extremism and Parteienforschung, political ideologies, and European research.