German exporters posted record earnings in June due to good demand from the EU countries, the USA and China. Exports grew by 4.5 percent month-on-month.
Hub for Germany: container terminal in the port of Hamburg
Exports currently add up to a value of 134.3 billion euros, the Federal Statistical Office announced on Wednesday. This is the third increase in a row after plus 1.3 percent in May and plus 4.6 percent in April. Economists surveyed by the Reuters news agency had only expected growth of 1.0 percent this time.
“Price increases can increase the nominal export volume without actually exporting more,” warned the chief economist at VP Bank, Thomas Gitzel, against too much euphoria when interpreting the figures. “Price-adjusted, there should be less left over from the increase in exports,” said Alexander Krüger, chief economist at Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe Privatbank AG.
Russia still in demand as a trading partner
Most German exports went to the United States in June. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, 6.2 percent more goods were exported there than in May, with US exports totaling 14.2 billion euros. Exports to the People's Republic of China rose by 2.4 percent to 8.9 billion euros, those to Great Britain by 4.2 percent to 6.0 billion euros. Goods worth 72.9 billion euros were exported to the member states of the European Union (EU), which is 3.9 percent more than in the previous month.
Despite sanctions against Russia following the attack on Ukraine, exports to the country rose 14.5 percent month-on-month to 1.2 billion euros in June. Within a year, however, they fell significantly by 40.3 percent. Imports from Russia increased in June by 4.8 percent compared to the previous month to 3.5 billion euros.
The mood remains gloomy
In June, imports were already in their fifth month in a row, although the increase of 0.2 percent was significantly weaker than in the previous months. The trade balance – exports minus imports – once again showed a clear plus of 6.4 billion euros in June. In May it was only 0.8 billion euros.
However, the mood among German exporters clouded over at the beginning of the second half of the year. The export expectations determined by the Ifo Institute fell in July to minus 0.5 points from plus 3.4 points in June. “The gas shortage is having a negative impact on the outlook for German exports,” explained the Ifo Institute.
“An economic problem child”
Thomas Gitzel is not dazzled by the good-sounding figures: “The At first glance, the overall balance for the second quarter looks quite positive, because substantial growth was also recorded in the previous months – but beware! The figures should be treated with caution.”
Alexander Krüger from Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe is also skeptical, although he is also pleased with the sales figures: “Exports are increasing sharply at a high level. That is good. However, given the fact that energy prices are likely to continue to rise, foreign trade will remain an economic problem child .”
dk/hb (rtr, dpa)