In order to prevent an impending dissolution of Parliament, a party in government in Kiev, the coalition is about to burst. A showdown with the newly elected President Selenskyj could paralyze the Ukraine.
The political breathing space after the presidential election in Ukraine is over. The “people’s front”, the party of former Prime Minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, announced on Friday its exit from the coalition in the Parliament. In the grounds is the aim of a new coalition, but in reality it is likely to be to prevent a dissolution of Parliament by the President-elect Volodymyr Selenskyj. Selenskyjs inauguration is scheduled for Monday (20. May) will be scheduled approximately four weeks after its historical victory against incumbent, Petro Poroshenko, with 73 percent of the vote.
President without a majority in Parliament
For months, speculation that the 41-year-old political newcomer and well-known TV comedian would like to take the opportunity to bring his own party with a large number of deputies to the Parliament. Without a separate party in the Parliament Selenskyj are tied in many aspects of the hands, because the real center of power is, according to the Constitution, the government.
Selenskyj needs the support of Parliament
According to opinion polls, the previously little-known party of Selenskyj, which he had named after his popular TV series “servants of the people”, with around 30 per cent or even more with a large distance in front of the other parties. Whether such popularity will keep values up to the regular parliamentary elections at the end of October, however, is questionable. Therefore, Selenskyj should try to dissolve Parliament and make way for elections in July to free up the assessment of many observers. A consultant confirmed in a television broadcast that the new President and new elections would be aiming for.
Selenskyj under time pressure
A lot of time Selenskyj not for his decision – only a week until the 27. May. After a period of tolerance that forbids the dissolution of Parliament six months before a regular election begins according to the Constitution. The next parliamentary elections would then be 27 on. October, take place.
Exactly the aims, apparently, the “people’s front”. The Parliament has, after the collapse of the current coalition 30 days to form a new one. If this fails, the President may dissolve the Parliament. But then the in the Constitution as held, for six months, he would grab the period.
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Break in the Ukraine
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What is the new President of the Ukraine want?
Why Selenskyj but dissolve Parliament could
Nevertheless, Selenskyj is likely to try in the coming days, to dissolve the Parliament. A legal basis was already in place, reports Ukrainian media. A court in Kiev has requested in the framework of another procedure at the beginning of March, a formal confirmation of the coalition in the Parliament and, to date, not receive.
The fact is that the 2014, the coalition called “European Ukraine” fell apart already in February 2016. At that time, three parties alternated in the Opposition, including the “Fatherland party” of the previous government of Yulia Tymoshenko. Remained an Alliance of the “people’s front” and “Poroshenko’s Block”, the changing with the help of non-attached members of majorities has given. “There is, in fact, for the past three years, no coalition,” said Selenskyj on Friday. The President-elect called the exit of the people’s front, “a game in the Parliament”, but decided not to threats.
Risk of political paralysis
Whether it was in the Ukrainian Parliament until this Friday, a coalition, or they already broke – this question is likely to soon deal with Ukrainian courts and at the end in front of the constitutional court land. There were only a few days ago a change at the top: The presiding judge was on 14. May, by a vote of no confidence by his colleagues to be trusted be discontinued. Whether there is a connection with the imminent dissolution of Parliament, it remains a speculation.
The emerging power struggle between President and Parliament, a new election is likely to cripple the already politically and economically for a long weakened Ukraine in addition to. It is also unclear how the cooperation between the new President and the head of the government Volodymyr Groysman will develop. Both are the same age, 41, but Groysman was previously Poroshenko-loyal, while Selenskyj won, especially as an opponent of the outgoing President, the election and his followers a new start promised.
It should not come to early parliamentary elections, could be based Selenskyj – similar as in the past, Poroshenko to changing majorities in Parliament. Especially difficult it should be, which was a vote on the day of his inauguration. The original proposal of Selenskyj, the ceremony in the Parliament on 19. May hold got 207 votes and was thus just the required majority of 226 votes. This seems to be a sufficient Basis, which could expand the new President.