The U.S. government is tightening its sanctions against Iran. Starting in may, with the previous exceptions. An escalation threatens – or is it just a negotiation à la Trump?
Half a year ago, the US imposed unilaterally on new sanctions against Iran. For eight of the most important Ölkunden of Iran, however, there were exemptions. These run on 2. May. Is it the intention of the United States, may then also refer to China, India, South Korea, Turkey, Italy, Japan, Greece and Taiwan no more Oil from Iran.
After the announcement of the USA, not to renew the exceptions, Oil has risen to the highest level since November. A barrel of North sea Brent hit on Tuesday 74,69 dollars. “A further rise cannot be ruled out,” says Eugen Weinberg, commodities analyst at Commerzbank. “If the rules are implemented very strictly, we run the risk of an Oil price of well over $ 80 in a very short time.”
What Trump wants?
However, what will happen exactly is still unclear. Especially since US President Donald Trump himself has already complained often about the high price of Oil. “In the Oil market there is a deficit of Supply,” says Weinberg of the DW. “Because of voluntary production cuts by the Opec (organization of petroleum exporting countries), and involuntary loss of production in Venezuela to 500,000 barrels per day the market currently.”
If the exception to the permits for the eight Ölkunden disappear completely, could increase the gap up to two million barrels per day, the vineyard. “More likely the markets but a scenario in which countries such as China and maybe India either a new exception permission is obtained or not on the sanctions involved.”
China is the main buyer of Iranian Oil, last year imported Beijing every day, approximately 585.000 barrels per day is a distance. On the places India, South Korea and Turkey to follow.
Sharp words from China
The Chinese foreign Ministry denounced the tightening of U.S. sanctions. Business relationships between Iran and other countries had lacked a “reasonable and legitimate”, while the United States the legal basis for sanctions, a spokesman said in Beijing. “We call on the US to act responsibly and to play a constructive role.” The Chinese government have inserted in Washington is already lodged a complaint.
One thing is for sure: The ongoing talks on a settlement of the trade conflict between the United States and China will be easier by the end of the exception rule does not.
India, the second-largest Ölkunde of Iran, announced however to want to be Oil elsewhere to buy. With its partners, including the United States, will India seek Ways to safeguard its energy interests, said a spokesman for the foreign Ministry in Delhi. A few years ago, India had evaded sanctions against Iran, there is a funded Oil through barter transactions.
The Europeans have created a special purpose company called Instex to Finance transactions with Iran despite US sanctions. How well this works, must show, however. A spokeswoman for the EU foreign representative, Federica Mogherini, called the announced tightening of sanctions on Tuesday for “regrettable”.
“The escalation”
The end of the derogation to show that the hardliners in the US Administration have prevailed, says Sascha Lohmann of the science and politics Foundation (SWP) in Berlin. The “strategy of maximum pressure” to let more penalties await. “At the same time, the threats will increase against Iran. In the Mediterranean sea, two aircraft carrier battle groups are also available to complement this threat, a military component,” says Lohmann to the DW. “The escalation.”
Watch the Video 02:32
Oil prices continue to rise
Iran’s oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said on Tuesday it would not succeed in the United States to restrict Iran’s Oil exports to Zero. In fact, should be in accordance with the 2. May show, whether “creative solutions” are found, the Iranian government, those 1-1,5 million barrels a day to buy, the need to get economically to make ends meet, says Lohmann of the SWP. “India has with its swap transactions. And what it wants to make the EU Instex in humanitarian and agricultural sector, could you expand on the Oil.”
The incentives are there, because the greater the pressure on Iran, the greater the likelihood that the country feels no more of its obligations under the nuclear agreement is bound. This is also why an EU spokesperson accused the United States not to endanger the agreement to prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb.
Further Extension?
But also for the United States, the Situation is not without risk. It was not certain that Saudi Arabia moves its production immediately, to close the Oil gap, says Analyst the vineyard, because Saudi Arabia wanted an Oil price of more than $ 80 per Barrell. In the USA, higher fuel threaten then, of all things, the beginning of the holiday season in summer prices.
In addition, the past have shown that in the case of Trump is not always so hot will be eaten as cooked. “In the past year, the United States have long threatened with strict sanctions – in short, before the entry into force, there was, however, generous exemptions”, so Weinberg. “Maybe that happens all the time.”