The two largest German private banks come together or not? Shortly before or after Easter, a preliminary decision could fall. But there are still a lot of unresolved questions.
Still the autumn sitting of the German bankers of the horrors in the year 2016 in the limbs. At that time, a billion stand-threat of prosecution from the United States in the space of 14 billion dollars, because of their crooked transactions in the run-up to the great world financial crisis. That would have been, it would have remained at this amount, Deutsche Bank driven into bankruptcy. At the end of seven billion penalty remained – and, apparently, the German government began to make at the time, thought, how you could prevent a collapse of Germany’s money, house number One.
Even if the policy has any influence, so there is plenty of evidence that it is the more or less gentle pressure from Berlin, has ensured that for the last four weeks, Deutsche and Commerzbank “officially” with each other about a merger talk. The driving force behind the merger talks, the state Secretary of Finance Jörg Kukies.
The former Germany-chief of the US investment Bank Goldman Sachs since well over a year in the service of the Federal Ministry of Finance, and met as early as 2018 on several occasions with representatives of the German Bank. Pikant daran: Goldman Sachs financial advising circles, according to the Commerzbank in the merger talks. And still, the Federal government owns 15 percent of the shares of the second-largest German Bank.
Jörg Kukies in the year 2017 at the October festival, at that time Germany-the chief of Goldman Sachs
The risks in the books
One way or the other is under negotiation for four weeks between the two money houses, it data is exchanged and checked. Officially, nothing penetrates virtually to the outside, speculation and reports from “insiders” or “people with knowledge of the operations,” fuel, but almost a day of rumours. After all, what can you hear and read, is completely open, whether it comes to an “in-depth negotiations” about a merger of the two houses. Only then, namely, the really hard facts on the table have to say: All the risks that can be found in the books.
The extremely complex derivatives: financial bets on interest rates and currencies in the book, at the Deutsche Bank value of as much as 42 trillion euros (that is 15-fold of the German economic performance). Even if the actual risk is much smaller than this mega sum, the market value of these derivatives in the event of failure to bring the German Bank belonging in danger.
It is similar in the case of Commerzbank, which has invested particularly heavily in Italian government bonds. The stocks account for 43 per cent of common equity capital, and the dramatically high levels of total debt and at the same time poor economic situation in Italy that always makes for nervousness among investors.
Short on cash
Similar to the unclear financing of a deal is: in the Meantime, observers assume that it would come, if at all, to a sale of the Commerzbank, the Deutsche Bank. But because the German has not appreciated the necessary nine billion for the purchase price in liquid, would be here perhaps a new capital increase in space, that is to say: The issue of new shares. However, that should not please the shareholders of the Bank at all. Because it diluted the already weak share price even further – and in addition, the shareholders had to jump in the past ten years, several times into the breach with 33 billion euros. Has brought there is nothing.
It should come at the end, but a Deal that would be in the new house at least at first glance, a giant: With 38 million Private and corporate customers, with 140,000 employees, 2400 branches in Germany, total assets of two trillion euros and a market share of 20 percent. Alone: In the international scale of the supposed giant is, in the end, only a dwarf again.
Competition rubs hands
Especially especially on the human side, there is a bald threat: 30,000 Make the speech at risk. But even this removal would initially cost money. And the unions have already announced fierce resistance. The chief of the Commerzbank works Council provides for the 49,000 employees in a “defensive battle” against the merger, the Financial Times quoted.
There are a great many questions remain still open. Also at the time the plan: Commerzbank pressures on the pace, so to hear a preliminary ruling, on the loved one before Easter wool. The German Bank, it had said Supervisory Board chief Paul Achleitner, in the context of their quarter-template on 26. April, to inform whether and how to proceed. One way or the other: If anything, it would be more of a Contact than a dream wedding.
The competition rubs already hands, as the new German would be a big busy Bank for years to come, especially with yourself. The head of the direct Bank ING (with almost eight million customers, the third-largest private customer Bank in Germany), Nick Jue, is not afraid: “If this is really happening, we are the second largest Bank in Germany. Normally, we take advantage of the unrest to other customers.”