A Brexit without a contract appears to many observers currently far more likely than a regulated outlet. What this means for those Affected, for the Sick, for bankers, for customers at the cheese stand, or for the animals?
Whether it comes to a controlled exit of Britain from the EU, or to the gefürchten Bang, the “hard brexit”: even now, the British economy has been damaged by the long exit debate. The British economic growth was last year at 1.4 percent, the lowest in six years. The British pound has lost since the Brexit vote, 15 percent of their value. The economy of the United Kingdom is already here now 2.5 percent weaker than in the case of an assumed vote for remaining in the EU, calculated by the Centre for European Reform now.
But it could get even thicker. The Bank of England predicted a No-Deal-exit will leave the economy up to six per cent slump. Let’s look at where it is right may be difficult:
Foreigners, Europeans, British
The Brexit changes the Status of many people – one way or the other, with or without a discharge of the contract. This is true for many who live in the UK and work for British who live and work in the EU. The need for all the new passports?
Large areas of the UK economy depend on the inflow of workers from abroad, such as in a drip, whether in agriculture or in health care. A Million workers came alone in the last 15 years. To restrict the entry of unskilled workers, would lead to acute shortage of workers, fearing the company. Currently, around 3.8 million EU citizens live in the UK. For the period after Brexit: the EU must register-citizen in the United Kingdom. Who is already more than five years in the country, has a direct claim to a right of residence. However, the burden of proof is at the end of the applicant. Critics fear that many people could through the Grid will fall, for example, freelancers and pensioners.
A British passport, and soon, without regard to Europe
This could also make thousands of Obachlose from EU-countries who live in England or Scotland on the street. Without new rules, you could face imprisonment or Deportation, and access to the doctor to be impossible.
Conversely, the number of applications for citizenship of British has increased in many EU countries. This is according to a survey by the German press Agency, among other things, for Germany, Ireland, Portugal and Sweden.
Bankers and other foreigners
The Brexit should give the island’s economy a huge boost in London’s economy means, above all: the financial industry and ‘City’ – from Hiking all the bankers now to Frankfurt, Dublin or Paris?
Now assets of one Billion pounds (around 1.17 trillion euros) due to the planned Brexits of London in the European Union. A study by the consulting firm EY showed. In Parallel, 7000 jobs have been relocated.
The most attraction of Dublin, found the think-tank New Financial. Especially asset managers, Ireland’s capital city chose. Luxembourg, Paris, Frankfurt and Amsterdam follow. For Frankfurt, in particular banks, Amsterdam trade platforms and trading houses decided.
Many foreign banks were, namely, by the Brexit vote in front of the Problem that you will have in London will no longer have access to the EU market. That is why you may need to apply for within the future EU, a new Bank license. Most of the banks are likely to create the according to the according to estimates by the Deutsche Bundesbank, but at the right time in front of a like kind of Brexit.
Sick by Brexit?
The Brexit should help according to the promises of the Brexiteers, many millions of pounds of savings that could be directed, for example, 350 million pounds every week – immediately in the healthcare industry. To be healthier, the British now? Or rather, sicker?
In January, the British government has bought 5,000 new refrigerators for hospitals. The health-informed Minister of the self. He wanted to make it clear, London is preparing for the problems that threaten sight by a No-Deal-Brexit in the health sector. Because currently, 45 million so-called patient rations are month-to-month on medicines from the EU to the island. The supply could suffer greatly; therefore, it is now stored.
The hospital in England: thousands of nurses are missing
Not less dangerous: It is heavy staff threaten shortages in UK hospitals. And even then, if there were a regulated Brexit. In the middle of last year, 16 percent of nurses came from abroad, many are now returning, the replenishment stops. 40,000 nurses are already missing today, with the Brexit it could be 50.000, predicted recently, a study of the sector.
“A No-Deal Brexit would have immediate and drastic consequences for the supply chains” in the case of medicines and vaccines, as well as for the staff, summarizes the journal “The Lancet Journal”.
Chains and grocery delivery
The Brexit should bring freedom for British companies and citizens, and strengthen the economy – but where are the cheese, meat and vegetables for the British?
Without a controlled exit would be incurred by the Scottish salmon for the Export duties of 14 per cent., quite apart from longer controls at the borders, the white businesswoman Julia Stryj: “A majority of our customers come from outside the EU,” she says. You, yourself, business partners, and their employees could not cope with the higher costs and additional work.
Not better it is for the Import of food. In the case of fresh food, around half of the UK’s needs is being imported. The retailers on the island is a bottleneck, threatening in the event of a hard Brexit. There is already enough warehouses to large amounts of spoilage of any of Goods, the number two in the UK supermarkets, Sainsbury’s. All black with the Danish freight forwarder DSV sees: A hard Brexit would bring extensive customs checks at British ports. An Endless traffic jam would be the result. Could extend over the entire 130-km-long stretch between London and Dover. In Dover, some 17 per cent of the goods will be dispatched for the island. Every day, approximately 10,000 truck rolls through the port.
100 kilometers of truck traffic? At the port of Dover.
Of airplanes and cars
The Brexiteers a closely interwoven European economy seemed to have always been a horror – but were you thinking of foreign tourists on the island? Or British car parts? British companies hang in a dense network of supply chains, tear down the now all in the case of a Brexit without a contract?
After all, the air traffic the UK and the EU provides for the case of a disordered Brexit: The air traffic in Europe is largely undisturbed. There are transition rules. Because within the EU, only Airlines allowed to offer flights that are more than 50-percent owned by EU-Domiciled and controlled. Because of the high proportion of British shareholders are large air-travel run corporations are in danger of losing traffic rights. You can get up to twelve months transitional period to settle their majority.
Less happily, the car maker will appear. For the German car industry, for example, the UK is the main export market. They feared, in addition to customs duties and transport problems for new car sales disruptions to the “Just-in-time”production in the supply chain. For the case of an unregulated Brexits the Deutsche Industrie – und Handelskammertag (DIHK) estimates for German companies with up to 10 million additional customs declarations per year, in addition to the actual duties. Possible costs: only for the German car exports more loads of around two billion euros in the year.
The German supplier Schaeffler has announced with reference to the Brexit to close two of its three plants in the UK. Also a lot of other companies to draw investments from the island.
Danger Zone Northern Ireland
The Brexit could allow the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland to barrels of a long series of Powder – the Brexiteers, that was clearly not so important. Also prosperity and growth in Ireland and Northern Ireland in danger the peace process on the island Green?
The border between the EU member Ireland and the UK Northern Ireland is 500 kilometers long. There are 250 official road crossings – more than the entire Eastern border of the European Union. You all will no longer be controlled since 20 years. With 13,000 Times of the day to cross the economic border shipments, alone, 3000 of which have loaded meat, eggs, milk or cheese.
Between Ireland and Northern Ireland: 500 kilometers to the border
One of the most important passages of the peace Treaty of 1998, the so-called good Friday agreement, held, that it could never again be a “hard border” between Northern Ireland and the South. The threat is now without a regulated Brexit. The conflict in Northern Ireland, at a cost of 3700 people. Today, many fear that the conflict could at any time break out again if the Brexit will continue to be managed so poorly. A British exit would namely invariably customs controls between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The said the responsible EU Commissioner, Pierre Moscovici, more than once: “make no mistake: It is cross-checks.” The whole Brexit could, at least in a controlled Form, still fail.
And the animals?
The rhinos and Okapis in Zoos in Europe could not vote on the Brexit – but could be dangerous for you. Why?
Brexit-The Victims Of The Okapi?
For environmental and animal rights activists, the No-Deal-Brexit is close to a horror scenario. 80 percent of the environmental protection guidelines which apply today in the UK come from the EU from Brussels. Who wants to take over London, allegedly in British legislation. Not much happened so far, but environmentalists complain. The UK, for example, would lose access to EU database on dangerous chemicals, it would fall out of programs for the protection of the sea, and everywhere in the country could stack the garbage – yet the UK is one of the largest waste exporters in the EU.
And then the already endangered animals are there in European Zoos. For breeding Zoos exchange animals to prevent inbreeding and associated genetic Defects. Here, too, the EU rules apply. Several Zoos have to hurry now, animals to share, as long as the rules for the UK. Sander Hofman from the Zoo Planckendael is afraid that the Brexit could bring the exchange of animals between the UK and other EU countries, at least for the time being to a Standstill. Hofman co-ordinates the exchange of the endangered Okapis in Europe. In Europe there are currently 73 Okapis. Of these, 13 lived in British Zoos. .