Increasing international tensions make it difficult for adequate responses to global risks. According to a report by the world economic forum meeting in front of his year in Davos.
Fishing boats destroyed on the island of Java after the Tsunami at the end of December 2018
The “Global Risk Report”, the world economic forum (WEF) publishes annually, based on the assessments of nearly 1,000 “experts and decision makers”. Who are these people exactly, and according to which criteria they are selected, reveals the report.
A large majority of the respondents is of the view that the – not only, but especially – from the USA’s policy of trade conflicts and protectionism for the world is a large risk.
Most expect that economic tensions are on the increase in this year (91 percent), multilateral trade is weakened (88 percent), and also the political clashes between the world powers greater than 88 percent) should be (. For comparison: An increase of terrorist attacks in this year only 20 percent likely.
“Significant Threats”
The deterioration in international relations in a time of weaker economic growth. “It is now more urgent than ever before, to renew the framework for international cooperation,” said Borge Brende, President of the world economic forum.
“We just don’t have enough powder to be with the kind of downturn, we are heading currently. We now need a concerted and collaborative Actions to sustain the growth and to combat the significant threats that our world faces,” says Borge.
Among the Top 5 global risks in the next ten years, most likely, the report for the first time, environmental problems in the first three places.
In the face of forest fires, Floods, Tsunamis and rising greenhouse gas emissions in the year 2018, this weighting is not surprised, says Alison Martin, a top risk Manager at Zurich insurance group, which is co-responsible for the WEF report as a Partner.
Warns you of failure in the face of environmental problems in front of a Policy. To respond “effectively to the climate change, we need a better infrastructure and a transformation of the economy to less CO2-emissions”, says Martin.
The water is rising: the house on the outskirts of the Indonesian capital of Jakarta
Depending on the Region must be invested in the protection against storms, Tsunamis, or rising sea levels. Conversely, falling water levels make the water supply in many cities is difficult and expensive. And if the transport system breaks down because of a lack of investment, has the far-reaching consequences for the economy.
“By the year 2040, we expect an investment gap of 18 trillion US dollars” (about 18,000 billion dollars), says Martin, at a total cost of 97 trillion dollars for the global infrastructure.
Natural disasters and hacker attacks
“The permanent under-financing of essential infrastructure hampers economic development,” says John Drzik of the consulting firm Marsh & McLennan, another Partner of the WEF. So companies and the Public would be more vulnerable – due to natural disasters, but also by attacks on the digital infrastructure.
Great damage caused by hacker attacks and data theft, the risk report is also one of the most likely global risks for the coming ten years.
The report also lists some of the Trends. Thus, developments that could contribute to amplifying global risks.
Under the title “heads and hearts – the human side of global risks,” the report also how people deal personally with the Situation. The authors rely on data that have gathered to other organisations.
Therefore, Stress, anger, loneliness, depression, and other mental diseases have increased in recent years, especially in the industrial countries.
Growing Anger
The causes according to the report, a tremendous cost – not only economically, but especially socially and politically. “In a world of increasingly angry people, the likelihood of unpredictable results of elections and social unrest is increasing”, – stated in the report.
Some of the warnings of the “Global Risk Report” that in this year to 14. Time appears to have been in the past, looking ahead.
In the beginning of 2007, the report pointed to the risk of a square, real estate-bubbles; in consequence of the global financial crisis. And already ten years ago, the report warned of the, what is obvious today: a countermovement to economic globalization.