Brexit: what’s next?

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The EU and the UK speak of a breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations. This must still mean nothing at all. Christoph Hasselbach with a couple of scenarios of how it could go.

Where are we going? Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker are looking for any way.

Mays Cabinet

Theresa May can talk of luck that some of your greatest enemies have left the Cabinet already, including Ex-foreign Minister, Boris Johnson and the former Brexit-Minister David Davis. Nevertheless, May the support of the Cabinet can not be sure. You should not get any back in the Cabinet, would be immediately put their authority into question, it is a national party would be in danger of a coup. At the top would probably be Boris Johnson. He is a hard and complete break with the EU.

The Conservative Party

It is hard to say where the party stands as a whole. There is a very small group of Brexit-enemies, but no longer. The dividing line is between hard “Brexiteers” and supporters of compromise solutions, such as the present. The design looks apparently temporarily common customs rules between the EU and the whole of the United Kingdom, as long as there is no final trade agreement for the period after the Brexit. In Northern Ireland there should be in addition, special regimes, border controls between Northern Ireland and the EU to avoid a member of Ireland.

For Boris Johnson any commitment to the EU is a closeout

For radical Tories like Johnson, Britain would sink to the Status of a “vassal state”, because the British Parliament “would have no influence on the laws that apply in this country.” Also, Davis called on the Cabinet of Ministers and all conservative members to say, “no, this is a surrender”. However, the opponents are usually loud, the Kompromissler the distorted, however, in rather a low voice, the image.

The Northern Irish DUP

May is dependent in the house of Commons on the support of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party. The resistance at this point is often underestimated. The DUP is in favour of maintaining the Union between Northern Ireland and the Rest of the United Kingdom and sees this Union threatened, if Northern Ireland is treated differently than the Rest of the Kingdom. DUP Leader Arlene Foster said in a television interview: “It’s a question of whether we dissolve the Union”, you are not going to say Yes. Sammy Wilson, DUP, speaker for Brexit-questions, called the draft a “humiliation”. The Union aspect is also the Tory emphasize heavy weights Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Johnson finds it intolerable that Dublin would be in some aspects of the Northern Irish regional government “more influence than London”. Rees-Mogg looks already the specter that “the North of Ireland, of Dublin, will be governed”.

Northern Irish unionists feared a Union with the Republic of Ireland through the back door

The Irish Prime Minister, Leo Varadkar assured the unionists already, the constitutional Status of Northern Ireland will not be touched, as long as the majority of the population wanted this, but this should reassure the unionists. The DUP May withdraw their support, would have May no longer be a majority in the house of Commons, it is threatened then new elections.

The EU member States

At first glance, they are likely to have less problems with the agreement. The rights of EU citizens after the Brexit are already clarified, the outlet statement also. The main sticking point was the least of the intra-Irish border. Should it succeed, to avoid border controls there, it would be in the spirit of the remaining 26 member States, especially the United Kingdom would have to stay in certain areas, such as competition law, environmental and social standards continue to Brussels rules. But that would be a crucial condition. Otherwise, would the UK access to the single market, would not have to meet such Standards and would have a competitive advantage. It could be, however, that some governments say that the EU had made concessions to London to far, the use of a wrong sign of possible imitators.

Another EU Referendum seems unrealistic

The heads of state and government of the EU could meet the end of the month to a special summit to decide together. Otherwise, the regular EU summit in mid-December would be the last opportunity. But then the time was already very tight for May, to bring the necessary legislation through its own Parliament.

The European Parliament

What want to avoid member States and the Parliament is cherry-picking, that is, the benefits of EU membership such as free movement of goods, enjoy services in the internal market without complying with the obligations such as the free movement of persons. It could be that the Europe will criticize Parliament if the United Kingdom, even if only temporarily, in a kind of customs Union with the EU remains connected and in the North of Ireland in the internal market without being a member.

The British Parliament

This last hurdle is in addition to the resistors in the Conservative party is the highest, and with a lot of uncertainty. The conservative group, Chairman of the house of Commons, Julian Smith, is advertising already approval. The Prime Minister, “deliver” on the one hand, the Brexit, but sure, “that he serves the interests of businesses and families.” However, the agreement is expected to be taken from several sides in the pliers. Who didn’t want Brexit, will also not soggy. Who wants a hard Brexit, as the group of Boris Johnson, considered every compromise as a sell-out and will vote against it.

May not know who in the house can count on

Labour leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, in turn, had already said, before he had seen the agreement with the EU, “the fact that this can be a good deal for the country”. He could also be tempted to vote tactically against Mays template, namely because he hopes to see new elections – the most recent election was lost for Labour. The Scottish national party and the liberal Democrats are both opposed to a Brexit, they would have to convince May. However, despite great resistance from different directions it could go at the end in a majority for the draft. Because many of the members in different political parties could come to the conclusion that it is not going to give you a better deal for the UK and it was certainly better than a disorderly Brexit.