In recent weeks, China has actively profiled itself as a peacemaker in the Middle East. But experts see a huge gap between the country's intended and actual impact.
The foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (left) and Bin Faisal (right). In the middle her Chinese counterpart Qin Gang, Beijing, April 6, 2023
Is China becoming the new major diplomatic power in the Middle East? A few weeks ago, the country launched a diplomatic charm offensive in the Middle East to present itself as a peacemaker between long-time rivals in the region. In fact, an agreement was reached in mid-March that normalized relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia after decades of hostility. Beijing now wants to start peace talks between Israel and Palestine.
After talks with high-ranking Israeli and Palestinian representatives, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang called on both sides of the conflict to “calm and exercise restraint”. The basic way out of the current situation is to resume peace talks and implement the two-state solution, he said.
The Chinese chief diplomat encouraged Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen to resume peace talks with the Palestinians and said China was ready to support them. In a separate conversation with Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad Al-Maliki, Qin reiterated this intention at a time when tensions between Israel and Palestine are rising again.
Possibly reopening soon with Chinese help: The Saudi Arabian embassy in Tehran
Diplomacy as protection of interests
What motivates China to make its offers? According to some experts, Beijing sees them as a way of protecting its own economic and political interests in the region. The state leadership sees the long-standing disputes between different countries as destabilizing and a potential threat to its long-term interests.
“China's most important interests in the Middle East are acquiring resources and markets,” said Dawn Murphy, professor of international security studies at the U.S. Air War College. “In addition to economic interests, this also includes political interests.”
China wants to help settle the disputes seriously, because the country benefits from stability in the region. “It can also show that it is a great power by acting as a mediator,” Murphy told DW.
Before the deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia, China had long been the most important trading partner for countries in the Middle East. It bought oil from several states in the region and invested the equivalent of more than 248 billion euros in the region between 2005 and 2022. The Silk Road Initiative, China's flagship global infrastructure project launched in 2013, has also helped Beijing expand its influence in the region.
Gap between ambition and reality
However, not all observers are convinced of the Chinese diplomatic initiatives. Experts say the gap between expectations and reality is huge. “Beijing saw an opportunity in the Iran-Saudi Arabia deal and offered a negotiating platform,” said Tuvia Gering, an expert on China-Middle East relations at the Diane and Guilford Glazer Center of the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel ( INSS).
The proximity of China to Iran can also be seen from the awarding of an honorary professorship by Peking University to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in February 2023
However, the agreement concluded in March is less due to China than to the two-year engagement of countries such as Oman, Iraq and the United States, according to Gering. “And in the case of Israel and Palestine, both sides are not interested in starting peace talks. In addition, both parties are skeptical about China's role as a balanced mediator,” says Gering.
Skepticism in Israel
“China may see itself as a balanced power vis-à-vis all parties. But this view is not shared in Israel. China is seen as a biased and cynical actor with no serious interest in resolving the conflict. China is fine just to score points diplomatically and geopolitically,” Gering continued.
After Qin signaled Beijing's interest in supporting Israel-Palestine peace talks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told CNBC on April 19 that he was unaware of any Chinese attempt to mediate in the conflict. “We respect China, we have a lot to do with China. But we also know that we have an indispensable alliance with our great friend, the United States,” Netanyahu said at the time.
In addition to fundamental concerns about China's intentions, Israel is also skeptical about Beijing's continued support for Iran, experts say. Israel sees Iran as an enormous threat to its security. “One cannot completely ignore the parallels between Beijing's Israeli-Palestinian proposal and its 'peace plan' for the Ukraine war,” said Sari Arho Havren, visiting scholar at the University of Helsinki. In both cases, Beijing cannot be considered a neutral party, according to Havren. Regarding the Ukraine war, it is on the side of Russia and in the Middle East so far on the side of Iran. “Up until now, China and Israel have had little common vision of the future of the Middle East.”
Im Conversation: Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (rear view)
Challenging US dominance in the region?
As China seeks to expand its influence in the Middle East – such as expanding ties with Saudi Arabia – the international community is watching closely as the country challenges the region's long-held US-dominated order.
< p>China values maintaining balanced relations with all Middle Eastern countries, says Murphy. “There is no sign that Beijing will take sides in the constant attempt to present itself as a 'peacemaker.'”
“China sees itself as a mediator, bringing together parties that China is good at maintains relationships,” she said. “But I don't think China wants to give any security guarantees. In any case, the countries in the region do not assume that China will play the same role as the USA,” Murphy continued.
It is unlikely that China will replace the US and become the most important regional security player. But overall, Gering believes, Beijing wants to rely less on US security commitments in the Middle East, which Beijing sees as counteracting increasing competition between the world's two leading economies. “China must take the initiative and get the countries in the region to have more strategic autonomy. This could turn the Middle East into a multipolar region,” says Gering.
Adapted from English by Kersten Knipp.