Published 26 April 2023 at 18.32
Domestic. In a new forecast, the Swedish Migration Agency assumes that a large number of Ukrainians will remain in Sweden after 2025.
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– We assume that the large the majority will want to stay in Sweden if the war continues and that they will then primarily apply for asylum, says Annika Gottberg, director of planning at the Swedish Migration Agency.
People who have fled Ukraine can receive temporary protection under the EU's mass refugee directive . The protection currently applies until March 4, 2024. In the forecast published today, the Swedish Migration Agency assumes a new main scenario based on a prolonged war and the EU extending the protection for another year.
According to the mass displacement directive, the temporary protection can apply for a maximum of three years and would thus end on March 4, 2025, even if there is still a war going on in Ukraine. The Swedish Migration Agency considers it likely that the majority of those who have had temporary protection in Sweden then apply for a residence permit on a different basis – above all asylum, but also a work permit.
– A development with a long-term war in Ukraine appears increasingly likely. If the war continues, it is reasonable to assume that the majority of those whose temporary protection expires will want to remain in Sweden. The incentives to stay are also assumed to increase the longer one stays here, says Annika Gottberg in a press release.
The Migration Agency's main scenario for 2023 is, as in previous forecasts, that 15,000 people from Ukraine seek protection in Sweden this year. A main scenario has also been drawn up for 2024 and of 10,000 asylum seekers next year.
Around 13,000 people who have sought protection under the mass flight directive are expected to leave Sweden in 2023 – 3,000 more than in the previous forecast. The Swedish Migration Agency adjusts the figure after many people have been discharged from the reception system since March 4, when they did not apply to extend their residence permits in accordance with the mass migration directive. The assessment is that these people have left Sweden without notifying the Migration Agency.
A total of around 20 percent of those who received temporary protection have been registered as having left Sweden. About one-third have stated that they will return to Ukraine, but it may be more than that.
– For the remaining two-thirds, the country they intend to go to is unknown or they have indicated another country than Ukraine as a destination. A small percentage of those who traveled out of Sweden have returned, says Annika Gottberg.
Approximately 44,000 people with temporary protection are estimated to be registered in reception on March 4, 2025. After that, it is assumed that around half will apply for asylum in Sweden if the war continues. Potentially, it could be about 22,000 additional Ukrainian asylum applications in 2025.