The years of the German job miracle is likely to go according to the estimate of Union-related Economists soon come to an end. The Institute IMK expected that the unemployment in this year, still going down, but 2020 is on the rise.
Machine builders in Hamburg
“The positive development on the labour market loses momentum, and ends the turn of the Year,” said the researchers at the Institute for macroeconomics and economic research (IMK) in Berlin. Their latest economic forecast says that the number of employed is stagnant active to 2020, with 45.2 million people, an increase of 380,000 this year. While the number of unemployed in 2019, the annual average is expected to be around 63,000 fall, you’ll rise in 2020 to about 70,000 to 2.35 million. Currently, the demand of private households for momentum, concern mainly the Institute, the Union-affiliated Hans-Böckler-stressed Foundation is one. “If the policy is not in control, determined against, grab the brake effects and services, the consumer climate and the labour market, and the crash is imminent,” warned the IMK-Director Sebastian Dullien.
The Economists of the Institute of clipping off like other organisations of its growth forecast significantly. They reduced the growth expectation for 2019 by 0.6 percentage points in 2020 to 0.9 percentage points. The IMK expects a GDP growth of 0.4 and 0.7 percent.
Words of warning: IMK-Director Sebastian Dullien
A number of causes for cooling
“The economic situation in Germany has come to a head” said Dullien. “So far, private demand is preserved, but the economy is still in front of a real, deep crisis. “But in the long run you should not rely on it”. The IMK-Director added: “If wages and consumption would grow so weak as in the 2000s, we’d already been for some time back in a recession.” Because the export-oriented industry is suffering from international trade conflicts, the slowdown in growth in China and the risk of a hard Brexits.
The IMK appealed to the Federal government to stabilize the economy, with investments mainly in infrastructure. This should support the re-loose monetary policy of the European Central Bank. They are also “urgently required to cope with the structural change towards climate neutrality, and to modernise some outdated infrastructure”. Financially there is enough room to manoeuvre: The researchers expect, in spite of the slowdown with a General government budget surplus of close to EUR 48 billion this year and 25 billion euros in the next year.
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Tacheles: Needs to drop the black Zero?
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Tacheles: Needs to drop the black Zero? (27.08.2019)
“Made in Germany” has top Image
The indication of origin “Made in Germany remains a leading export nation Germany” is an important sales argument. For German products, according to a study in the world continues to be an excellent reputation. “Made in Germany” was “the best award that can be on a product,” said the Institute YouGov for the idea of a joint study with the UK’s Cambridge University. It took twelve countries of production to the first place in the worldwide product perception. Italy came in were ranking on the second place, followed by the UK and France in third place. Worst, according to YouGov products from China.
Meanwhile, the EU statistics Agency, reports Eurostat, the season is sunk-adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone in August. You fell in the 19 Euro countries compared to July by 0.1 percentage points to 7.4 percent. This is the lowest level since may 2008. Also in the whole of the EU, the unemployment rate declined again in August to 6.2 percent to 6.3 percent in July. This is the lowest value, since the monthly EU began records in January 2000. In the EU States the Czech Republic with 2.0% has by far the lowest unemployment rate. On court two, Germany follows with 3.1 percent. The highest rates are in Greece, 17.0 percent, and Spain, with 13.8 percent.
kle/se (rtr, afp, dpa)