Myanmar

100 days of NLD: “not so Far, not much is happening”

In November 2015, the opposition party won the National League for democracy (NLD), the elections in Myanmar. In March 2016, Aung San Suu Kyi’s party has taken over the business of the government. Time for a first balance sheet.

Deutsche Welle: Since the 100 days of Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD is in Power. What has happened since then?

Robert Taylor: The government was formed, and repeatedly reshaped. At all levels of administrative and political Posts were awarded. At the same time, the government has established a number of committees, the different tasks have. It is but so far. Concrete results are still there. The speech is from the announcement of the economic policy and of the so-called second Panglong conference. Overall, therefore, a “work in progress”. [Editor’s note. d. Red.: On the first Panglong conference in 1947, Aung San, with some, but not all ethnic minorities had a kind of framework agreement, which should regulate the future co-existence of different peoples after independence.]

No concrete results. The new government is to slow?

Hans-Bernd Zöllner: The government is not slow, if we consider their real goal. You don’t want to invent less than Myanmar. This is also what the people expect. It’s about Aung San Suu Kyi is no longer accomplished what her father Aung San, as he was murdered a year before the independence. As they entered in 1988 for the first Time in the political Arena, she said the much-quoted sentence: “This national crisis could in fact call for the second struggle for independence.”

This is what people expect: A comprehensive new beginning, as at that time, after the end of the colonial period. This is of course not possible. And 100 days is not for such a claim, a lot of time. The crucial question is: What will change and what will remain as it is?

The current government has referred to the change sought, always with the slogan of “democracy”. Is filled, the term is now life?

Hans-Bernd Zöllner

Hans-Bernd Zöllner: The first step for the above-mentioned second Panglong conference. The speech is for a long time. At least since 2010, shortly after Aung San Suu Kyi was released from house arrest. This is the crucial approach of the NLD, in order to renew the country.

Robert Taylor: But one of the problems is that this conference has been discussed in the last five or six years, but very little has been done to prepare them specifically. This is one of the fundamental problems of the new government. When she was elected in November, I had the impression that you had prepared more carefully for the time in office. Therefore, it is – at least in our perception – delays. The preparations were expected of an opposition party, were not then taken. This is also what worries me about the second Panglong conference. It’s about bringing more than 20 ethnic groups, the peace. Each of these groups has its own Agenda, own interests and own Position. To move the groups within two or three days of an agreement to, I think, is extremely difficult.

The peace process is the crucial Problem that must be addressed first?

Robert Taylor

Robert Taylor: The party programme of the NLD articulated three very broad concepts: peace, democracy and prosperity. And peace was set in the first place. And that’s probably the way it should be. The country has wars since independence in 1948, with the citizens to fight. It needs to find a way to stop this.

Hans-Berd zoellner: All other topics, such as economic development, some of the rise in the West to the top priority, very closely linked to the peace, because many of the resources of the country are located in regions which are at least partially controlled by ethnic armies. So for example in Shan or Kachin state. Everything depends on the peace.

You have expressed skepticism that two days are enough to reach a peace agreement. How much time do you expect?

Robert Taylor: With some certainty, we know only the past. Last November, it has completed the previous government, a ceasefire agreement with eight of the armed groups. Then after that the political dialogue should begin, should not address issues related to Amendments to the Constitution and some of the other points, so that the civil war flares up again. Up to this point it has taken five years. And I suspect that it is also five years did not take a similar Deal with the groups that were included in the first round. And when it comes to all of the 27 groups, maybe even ten years. We are speaking here of an extremely complicated project in which all participants speak a different language and have completely different views represented, even when it comes to the same thing.

Hans-Bernd Zöllner: If the NLD can manage to achieve any Form of agreement, which is primarily a symbolic act. This is the first place in the conference. And many will be happy with it. The policy of the NLD, and especially Aung San Suu Kyi was policy in the past, before all a symbol, if only because the military, the Opposition has been left with no other option. A symbolic act is, in my view, not a little, when you consider the whole of Robert Taylor already-mentioned difficulties.

But you can’t rule a country with a icon in the policy alone.

Hans-Bernd Zöllner: That would be, of course, only a beginning, but a beginning.

We come back to the party. Aung San Suu Kyi is 71 years old. There is within the party’s preparations for a transfer of power?

Robert Taylor: of Course, there are people that are regarded as your successor. U Htin Kyaw, for example, was elected to the President or to the President was made. And there are in the party, some other, the ambitions. However, there are still no signs of an organized transfer of power. Maybe Aung San Suu Kyi thinks that it is still too early. But this is only a guess.

Hans-Bernd Zöllner: After all, what we know so far, from Myanmar, is to be feared that the party will disintegrate, as soon as Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, you no longer lead. This is a huge challenge and a major factor of uncertainty with a view to the future of the country. Until today, all the threads run together with her.

Robert Taylor: Without A Doubt.

Robert Taylor is one of the leading experts when it comes to the politics in Myanmar. He has published several books and dozens of articles about the country. Most recently his biography of General Ne Win who has ruled the country over the years appeared.

Hans-Bernd Zöllner has been working for more than three decades, through Myanmar. He published a comprehensive book about Aung San Suu Kyi and the military in Myanmar. Most recently, a political biography of Aung San Suu Kyi appeared.

The Interview was conducted by Rodion Ebbighausen.