More people with deportation orders are expected to leave Sweden

Published 22 October 2024 at 17.15

Domestic. The Swedish Migration Agency still estimates that around 10,000 people are seeking asylum in Sweden this year. At the same time, the forecast for the number of people with rejected applications for residence permits who leave the country voluntarily is being raised.

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– We are raising the forecast for this year, in light of the outcome during the year and so that our work to increase return is expected to have further effect, says the Swedish Migration Agency's director general Maria Mindhammar.

Today, the Swedish Migration Agency's new forecast is published, with calculations and assumptions for the development in the area of ​​migration in the years 2024 to 2027.< /p>

In the previous forecast, which was published in July, the Swedish Migration Agency estimated that around 10,000 people will seek asylum in Sweden in 2024 and around 9,500 people in 2025. These assessments are fixed in the new forecast.

Compared to before, the Swedish Migration Agency estimates that more people who have had an application for asylum or other residence permit rejected leave Sweden. The assessment is that around 7,800 people will return voluntarily in 2024 – 900 more than the assumption in the previous forecast. In 2025, the number of self-returnees is expected to amount to around 6,900 people – an increase of 300 people compared to the previous forecast.

– We have been tasked by the government to increase returns and are now working intensively on that, including by developing the operations at our return centers and expanding the capacity in the depot, says Maria Mindhammar.

That the number of returnees is expected to be fewer in 2025 than in 2024 is due to the reduced number of asylum applications, which result in fewer rejection decisions. From 2026 onwards, the forecast is that the return will increase again, as a result of the fact that more people are then expected to be refused an extension application for, for example, a work permit.

In the case of asylum seekers from Ukraine, the Migration Agency writes up the forecast with around 500 people for 2024 and about 1,000 people for 2025. This means that about 11,500 Ukrainians are expected to seek protection under the mass refugee directive this year and about 12,000 in the next year. The mass displacement directive currently applies until March 4, 2026, but if the war in Ukraine continues, it is likely that the temporary protection under the directive will be extended further.

The forecast for the number of first-time applications for work permits received is reduced by 3,000 per year during the forecast period. This means approximately 39,000 applications annually in 2024 and 2025.

– In recent years, we have seen a declining trend in terms of applications for work permits. The reason is probably the state of the economy and the increased supply requirements that apply since November 1 last year. When it comes to the highly qualified workforce, on the other hand, no reduction is visible this year, says Eric Ramstedt.