Published 27 September 2024 at 15.43
Economics. This year the recession in the Swedish economy deepens. A cautious economic recovery begins towards the end of the year, but the recession lingers longer than previously assumed. This is according to the Norwegian Economic Institute's latest forecast.
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Repercussions of recent years' price increases and high interest rates have meant that the recovery in household consumption has been slower than expected.< /p>
Low inflation and progressively lower interest rates mean, however, that towards the end of the year, households will begin to increase consumption, according to KI's forecast. Lower interest rates also contribute to investments turning upwards next year after a decline this year and last year. Swedish exports grow relatively slowly both this year and next year, but contribute to positive growth.
Unemployment is expected to peak at 8.4 percent this year, but the turn in the economy means that unemployment is believed to decrease over the course of next year .
Inflation is predicted to remain below the Riksbank's inflation target for the rest of 2024 and 2025. The Norwegian Economic Institute forecasts that the Riksbank will gradually lower the key interest rate to 1.75 percent next summer.
The budget bill for 2025 contributes according to the forecast to the fact that the structural saving decreases next year to 0 percent of GDP. The space for unfunded measures in the years 2026–2028 amounts to SEK 106 billion, or approximately SEK 35 billion per year, which roughly corresponds to an average budget.