Published 12 August 2024 at 09.41
Economy. SEB: Housing price indicator shows a decline in households' expectations of the housing market ahead of autumn. In August, the indicator decreased by 8 units, from plus 51 to plus 43, reflecting increased caution among households.
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The percentage of households that believe in rising housing prices in the coming year have decreased to 55 percent, a decrease of 5 units from the previous month. At the same time, the proportion expecting falling prices has increased to 12 percent, an increase of 3 units.
– Households are adjusting their housing price expectations downwards for the second month in a row. After a long period of growing optimism, there is now a clear correction of expectations, which tends to happen in similar upswings. With more interest rate cuts around the corner, however, it still suggests that the housing market will get new life in the autumn, says SEB's private economist Américo Fernández in a press release.
Households' expectations for the Riksbank's key interest rate in one year now stand at 3.32 percent, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from last month.
Américo Fernández comments that households still have a cautious view on interest rates, but that more interest rate cuts could give the housing market a boost in the fall.
< p>Another trend is that more households are considering tying their variable mortgage rates. The proportion planning to do this has increased by 5 units to 12 percent.
The housing price indicator fell in five out of six regions. The largest decline was noted in Östra Götaland, where the indicator fell by 19 units to plus 24. Only Västra Götaland showed an increase, where the indicator rose by 2 units to plus 51.
The survey, which was carried out by Demoskop on behalf of by SEB, is based on approximately 1,000 web interviews during the period 24 July to 6 August 2024.