Ethnic diversity behind reduced childbearing

Published 11 July 2024 at 07.22

Foreign. Birth rates are falling in areas characterized by high racial diversity, an American study shows. Diversity is a big part of the reason why people are having fewer children, according to the researchers.

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The new study reveals that there is a strong link between racial /ethnic diversity and lower birth rates in the United States.

A one standard deviation decrease in racial concentration (having people of many different races nearby) or an increase in racial isolation (belonging to a less diverse race in an area) is associated with 0.064 and 0.044 fewer children per person, respectively. This relationship remains even after controlling for other factors that affect birth rates.

According to the researchers, the same pattern is consistently found within different racial groups and is reflected in census data going all the way back to before the American Civil War in the 1860s. The study also shows that similar patterns occur internationally.

What is the explanation? The study finds that racial diversity is also associated with fewer marriages and a tendency to marry later in life. These patterns are related to homophily, which means a tendency to marry within one's own racial group. The effects are stronger within races that intermarry less often with people of other races and vary by sex differences in intermarriage.

Since 1970, increasing racial diversity in the United States has explained 44 percent of the decline in birth rates over the same period, according to the study. Since 2006, it has accounted for 89 percent of the decline in the birth rate.

The US total fertility rate briefly exceeded 2.1 children per woman's lifetime during the 2006-2007 housing bubble, but has since fallen steadily and hit a new record low of 1.62 in 2023. Total births fell 2 percent last year to below 3.6 million, the lowest since the 1970s.