Households continue to hold onto their wallets

Published 20 June 2024 at 10.51

Economy. Household consumption continues to develop weakly in the near future but rises clearly towards the end of the year. It contributes to the recession bottoming out this year. However, Sweden is still considered to be in a recession next year, according to the Institute of Economics' latest forecast.

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GDP growth in Sweden was high in the first quarter of this year but this is deemed to have been temporary.

Unemployment continues to rise and reach a peak of 8.5 percent this year, according to the forecast. Inflation has fallen back quickly recently and is estimated to be below 2 percent in the second half of this year and into next year.

The Riksbank is therefore believed to continue to lower the policy rate going forward. The forecast means that the policy rate will be lowered to 3.0 percent at the end of 2024 and further to 2.25 percent in May 2025.

The Norwegian Economic Institute estimates that the budget space for 2025–2028 amounts to approximately SEK 120 billion, of which approximately SEK 40 billion kroner is assumed to be used in 2025.