Published 7 May 2024 at 13.33
Economics. SEB's Business Indicator, which shows businessmen's view of business over the next three months, decreases this month by 7 units from plus 16 to plus 9.
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The percentage of entrepreneurs who believe in a positive development of the business during the next three-month period decreases from 28 percent to 24 percent, while the percentage of entrepreneurs who believe in a negative development increases from 12 percent to 15 percent. The percentage who believe in unchanged development increases from 57 percent to 58 percent.
The entrepreneur indicator is the difference between the percentage who believe in a positive development and the percentage who believe in a negative development. The indicator is in this measurement at plus 9 units, which is 7 units lower than last month.
– This month we note a bit of a setback in the entrepreneurs' otherwise cautiously growing optimism. Although inflation suggests that interest rate cuts are on the horizon, perhaps the decline reflects a more realistic picture of how big an impact they are expected to have on households and businesses. In such a case, it is rather healthy behavior on the part of the entrepreneurs who can instead prepare for a cautious economic recovery rather than a rally, says SEB's private economist Américo Fernández.
When asked how three economic indicators ( turnover, liquidity and working hours) developed during the last month compared to the previous month, two of the three indicators rise and one falls. These are also measured as balance measures, i.e. the proportion that states an increase minus the proportion that states a decrease. Working hours decrease from plus 2 to plus 1, turnover increases from minus 8 to minus 2 and liquidity increases from minus 7 to plus 4.
– The economic indicators of entrepreneurs can often give an indication of where the general economic situation is on the way. This month the trend we saw in the spring is confirmed, the bottom has been reached but the economic recovery will take time. In addition, the liquidity follows a clear seasonal pattern, which means that the entrepreneurs are filling up their coffers before the summer break, says Américo Fernández.