Published 23 April 2024 at 16.56
Domestic. The Swedish Migration Agency's forecast for the number of asylum seekers is left unchanged. The assessment continues that approximately 12,000 people are seeking asylum in Sweden this year and next year. In addition, 42,000 new “labour immigrants” are expected this year.
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– At the moment, we do not see that developments in the outside world change the assessment of the number of asylum seekers in Sweden. Regarding the effect of the EU's new migration pact, it is too early to draw any long-term conclusions, says Maria Mindhammar, Director General of the Swedish Migration Agency.
Today, the Migration Agency's new forecast is published, with calculations and assumptions for the development in the area of migration in the years 2024 to 2027.
As in the previous forecast, the Migration Agency's planning assumption is that approximately 12,000 people seek asylum in Sweden this year and next year. The development of events in the outside world and the escalated conflict in the Middle East are not judged to affect how many people seek protection – at least not in the short term.
– In the longer term, it is too early to draw any conclusions and it of course depends on how the development proceeds, says Maria Mindhammar.
At the beginning of April, the European Parliament voted through the so-called migration and asylum pact, which will the basis for a new common asylum system within the EU. Now only a decision by the member states in the Council of Ministers remains for the pact to become a reality. Once the pact is formally adopted, work begins on implementing the new legislation and building up the capacity of the member states. That work is expected to take several years.
– In light of that, the pact does not have an immediate impact on our assessments in the forecast. The changes will have a greater impact in the longer term, but it is too early to say to what extent it affects the number of asylum seekers in the EU and Sweden, says Magnus Frid, acting director of planning at the Swedish Migration Agency, in a press release.
The scenarios for the number of asylum seekers from Ukraine are also unchanged compared to the previous forecast. The main scenario is that approximately 8,000 Ukrainians seek protection in Sweden for the first time in 2024.
The Mass Refugee Directive, which gives Ukrainians the opportunity to receive temporary protection, is currently activated until March 4, 2025. Within the EU, discussions are ongoing about extend the temporary protection for another year.
– According to the EU Commission and the Council of Ministers, there is a legal basis for doing so. But since there is no information about a further extension, our forecast for the time being is based on the protection ending in March next year, says Magnus Frid.
If an extension of the mass flight directive becomes a reality, it means that a large proportion of the roughly 38,000 people who currently have temporary protection in Sweden may be entered in the population register. The current requirement to be entered in the population register is that one can be assumed to be staying in Sweden with temporary protection for more than three years.
– With a further extension of the mass migration directive, many Ukrainians may meet that requirement. Those who are entered in the population register will then be written out of the Migration Agency's reception system to instead be received by the municipality as other new arrivals, says Magnus Frid.
When it comes to work permits, the Migration Agency writes down the forecast for the number of first-time applications. The assessment is that approximately 42,000 people will submit a first-time application for a work permit this year, which is 3,000 fewer than the assessment in the previous forecast.
– The change is mainly due to the fact that we assess that fewer people apply for work permits for berry picking this year compared to earlier, says Magnus Frid.