Published 29 March 2024 at 08.19
Economics. Sweden's metropolitan real estate agents believe in a stronger demand for housing during the second quarter of the year. The last time their optimism was close to this great was before the first quarter of 2020, before the pandemic.
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SBAB's survey The broker barometer also shows that almost half of the brokers believe in rising housing prices, which is the highest percentage in three years.
According to SBAB, the main reasons for the spring turmoil in the housing market are probably a pent-up need to move and a belief in a lower policy rate.
– The brokers are strikingly optimistic. The last time they were even close to this hopeful about demand was for the first quarter of 2020, i.e. just before the pandemic. The burgeoning optimism is probably a consequence of the fact that the housing market has been incredibly sluggish for the past two years and that the market is now expected to start moving as a result of interest rate cuts, says Linda Hasselvik, SBAB's private and housing economist, in a press release.
Statistics from Booli Pro show that the median value for the number of days that houses and apartments were advertised on Booli was around 70 at the turn of the year and around 45 days in mid-March. To some extent it is a seasonal pattern, but also corrected for there is a decline in advertising times.
– That interest rates are not believed to increase further and that the economic situation has stabilized may contribute to more people daring to do business. In combination with the fact that there is probably a pent-up need to move, as turnover on the market has been record low in recent years, it will probably lead to increased activity on the housing market. At the same time, we are in a recession and even if one or two interest rate cuts are made during the second quarter of the year, it will take some time before it has any noticeable effect on the households' wallets. Even variable interest rates mean that the loans are tied for three months and a significantly strengthened purchasing power will not reasonably be felt until the interest rate drops to significantly lower levels, says Linda Hasselvik.