The auto market gradually continues its recovery led by China which is becoming a "superpower" of the Automotive sector, adding to the supremacy of the most important market; largest in the world also as the leading exporter of cars. This is serious; what emerges from the new Global Automotive Outlook report by AlixPartners.
Therefore, according to the new study, in 2023 we will arrive at the global automotive outlook. to sell 5% more globally; of vehicles worldwide. We are talking about 83 million cars, 4 million more; compared to 2022. An increase that will be expected; possible “thanks to the easing of tensions on supplies, such as those of semiconductors”. Instead, between 2024 and 2027 an average annual growth of 3% is expected. According to the report, the increase in sales of 100% electric models will continue. and will support the overall volumes of the market, against a reduction of internal combustion vehicles of approximately 3% per year.
CHINA THE PROTAGONIST
The car market will grow; with different trends in different regions. For example, in the United Stateswill increase by 10% in 2023 to then settle at an average of +3% per year until 2027. In Europe, on the other hand, growth in 2023 will be much lower. by 6% and then by 2% annually until 2027. In the end, in 2027, volumes in the Old Continent will reach approximately 85% of those of 2019.
Chinaconfirms itself as a protagonist in the automotive sector and will continue to grow; to be the largest market largest in the world with 24.9 million vehicles in 2023. The report estimates that in 2027 it will reach 24.9 million vehicles. to 29.1 million vehicles sold. The study then points out that 2023 will be the same year. a record year for China and the producers of this country.
China will become the the world's leading exporter of cars (overtaking even Japan), with an 80% growth rate compared to the first quarter of 2022; for the first time in history, more; of 50% of the local market will be; satisfied with vehicles produced by domestic brands (35% in 2020); and Chinese brands will also contribute to the growth of exports, but with still limited effects in Europe, where a market share gain of 4% to 6% is expected in 2026.
E Italy?With regard to our country, the report states that in 2023, around 1.7 million vehicles will be registered in the Italian car market, with a growth of around 12% compared to last year, thanks to “a long tail of unsatisfied demand deriving from the period of tensions on supplies in recent years”. Dario Duse, EMEA co-leader of the Automotive & Industrial team and Country Leader Italy of AlixPartners, commented the results of the report in this way.
In the long term, Europe will be the best place to be. around 17.4 million vehicles in 2027, 16% below 2019 sales. China is shaping up to be a “superpower” of the Automotive sector, with Chinese brands reaching a 51% share of the local market for the first time, and with exports showing strong growth in the coming years. Control of technology, government supports, competitiveness – of cost and business models that respond better and more; quickly to market demands are the combination at the basis of their success. Traditional players will have to be ready to review their approach to compete in the Chinese market and defend their shares in Western markets.
On Italy, in particular, he added:
In addition to this year's growth, the recovery for Italy is estimated to continue in the years after 2024 with annual growth rates of around 2%. From a production chain point of view, the turnover of components produced in Italy should continue the re-growth path that began in 2021, recording an average annual increase of 5.4% in the period 2022-24, mainly driven by an increase in ;export of 6.4% per year. In the same period, imports, excluding batteries, will grow at an annual rate of 5.6%.
ELECTRIFICATION
As regards, however, electrification, the investment estimation is easy to use. increased from 526 billion dollars for the period 2022-26 to 616 billion dollars for the period 2023-27 (+17%). 80% of the $90 billion in excess will be used for batteries. AlixPartners predicts that European self-sufficiency for battery production should be achieved starting in 2026. more and more towards the integration and control of the extraction of raw materials. On the subject of electrification, Emanuele Cordone, Director of the Automotive & Industrial team of AlixPartners, comment:
The electrification journey continues and we expect battery-powered vehicles (BEVs) to account for the majority of global volumes by 2035, with a 59% share in the US, 82% in Europe (geographic) and 66% in China. The market share of BEVs in 2022 is amounted to 14.2%, we are therefore still in an early adoption phase, and the focus will continue on to move towards the reduction of the time to market and the sustainability of the economic. Meanwhile, the cost and productivity challenge is growing. he continues: raw materials have decreased, but with a cost 87% higher than in 2020. Furthermore, for the next few years, the average volumes of BEVs produced per platform will remain below those of combustion engine vehicles, limiting the ability to to absorb investments and fixed costs.
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