Little optimism before the climate conference

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International climate negotiators are discussing a compensation fund for damage caused by fossil fuels for the first time since the agreement was reached. The two-week talks in Bonn are preparing for the COP in Dubai.

Diplomats from all over the world are currently meeting in Bonn for interim negotiations in preparation for the COP 28 climate conference at the end of the year. International agreements, plans and strategies are considered a key in limiting global warming and adapting to consequences such as heat waves and sea level rise.

The preliminary talks in Bonn, which are less well known to the public, lay the basis for the UN climate summit every year.

The negotiators from more than 190 countries are already agreeing on technical details, for example on reducing environmental pollution, protecting people from heat waves and an increasingly threatening environmental situation, or who should pay for what in the future. Larger differences are already evident here, which will be discussed in the political struggle during the COP 28 in the United Arab Emirates.  

At the meeting in Bonn the international representatives  the goals of the upcoming climate conference and it enables an exchange on which political measures work and which do not, explains Alex Scott, expert on climate diplomacy at the think tank E3G in London. “What's different about Bonn is that the politicians aren't there – or only very few.”

At last year's COP27 climate summit, activists urged leaders to reduce pollution faster and for to pay for the damage they cause

Who pays for the damage caused by climate change?

The Bonn negotiations are the first talks of this scope since the COP27 in Egypt last year. At that time, in tough negotiations, it was agreed to set up a climate fund to compensate for some of the damage caused by extreme weather in poorer countries. The agreement was reached at the last minute and is considered a milestone. It is the first time that rich countries want to take responsibility for their greenhouse gas emissions in this way. 

But little progress was made last year on the subject of reducing emissions and climate protection, which many countries, especially smaller states, criticized.

“We have an agreement for a new fund,” says Marjo Nummelin, Finnish chief negotiator.”But we think that we shouldn't have another COP where there is no real progress on the emissions reduction agenda.”

The future of the new fund is still open. Before money flows, the countries first have to agree on who ultimately has to pay, who gets how much and under what circumstances. Some of these points will now be discussed in Bonn. The political disputes are then only settled later in Dubai. 

Important talks about the new compensation fund for climate damage 

“I expect that we will at least get an informal comment in Bonn,” said Juan Carlos Monterrey, former chief climate negotiator who now works for Geoversity, a wildlife NGO. “An informal comment is that  what it sounds like: an unofficial document summarizing the visions and positions of the various parties and political groups.”

More pressure on rich countries to bear the costs. Ahead of the COP27 summit, floods devastated Pakistan

For countries on the front lines of climate change, battling sweltering heat waves or seeing their homes washed away by rising sea levels, the problems won't be solved on paper. The new fund aims to help countries recover from the damage caused by climate change, such as rebuilding homes and infrastructure destroyed by storms, supporting farmers during a drought, but also reducing their own emissions and adapting to a new one adapt to the weather conditions. But this fund is not a guarantee for quick financial aid .

Rich countries have already broken a promise made in 2009 . At the time, they promised poor countries $100 billion annually in grants and loans through 2020 to reduce carbon emissions and adapt to climate change.

Some observers assume that the goal of 100 billion euros in climate support could now be achieved this year, i.e. three years later than planned. One way or another, scientists agree, the promised money was not sufficient from the outset. Discussions are now also being held in Bonn on financing targets after 2025.

Increasing emissions a “death sentence”

During the conference, the United Nations also want to take a close look at the progress made in achieving the climate goals. In a “global stocktake”, i.e. a worldwide inventory, every every two years, an assessment is made of how humanity is reacting to climate change. How accurate this year's assessment will be is now being discussed in Bonn before it is published in November ahead of COP28.

The assessment is based on research that already shows that countries still emit too many harmful gases and invest too little money in climate protection to keep their promises and protect their population from extreme weather conditions.

“There has to come a point where we cut emissions or it's really a death sentence for countries like us,” said Khadeeja Naseem, climate minister of the Maldives, an island nation in the Indian Ocean.

“That's no understatement,” Naseem continued. “The Maldives is just a meter above sea level and all critical infrastructure is just 100 meters from shore. We have increasing erosion. Most homes are being submerged by the tides. And we're a geographically dispersed island nation. It says very much at stake.”

Low-lying island nations like the Maldives are among the countries that will be most affected by rising sea levels

To prevent heat waves from getting hotter and coastal flooding from getting worse, world leaders pledged in Paris in 2015 to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century to limit pre-industrial temperatures. But with their current policies, they will almost double that.

Scientists are calling for leaders to take immediate action to burn less coal, oil and gas and cut emissions across sectors deeply and quickly reduce.

The Brazilian government recently announced that countries will present new and more ambitious climate plans at the 2025 COP30 in Belem, near the Amazon.

“For us, it is absolutely crucial that there is an international environment that leading the parties to put the most ambitious measures on the table,” said a Brazilian climate negotiator, who spoke anonymously to DW.

If you don't have more ambition by then, and if you don't close the gaps and implement them in this critical decade, “that means we've lost the 1.5°C battle”.

Although the head of a major oil company, Sultan Al Jaber, has been elected President of COP28

Oil and gas lobbying 

This year's COP28 climate summit is already being criticized. The President of the Summit, Sultan Al Jaber, is the full-time CEO of the UAE oil company ADNOC. In an open letter, 130 MPs from the EU and the US called for his removal. 

“With this appointment you are sending the message that the oil industry is in charge here,” said Monterrey, the former chief negotiator from Panama. “We run the risk of this process becoming obsolete even more than usual. Because when people see this, they think it's a joke.”  

However, some delegates are cautious optimistic. While the United Arab Emirates plans to further increase their oil production, they are also investing heavily in clean technologies. 

 “They are in a unique position to initiate positive things as well,” said Naseem, the chief negotiator of the Maldives. “I really hope that the United Arab Emirates can play a crucial role in driving the transformation – including with renewable energy and technologies – that can help countries like us to survive well into the future.”

Bring on the raw materials, but please make them sustainable!