Orders received by German industry rose in February more than they had in a year and a half. This is also due to orders in “other vehicle construction” – i.e. ships, trains and military vehicles.
An employee of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG at the storage drum of a large-format printing press
New orders in the manufacturing sector rose sharply in February. Compared to the previous month, the order volume rose by 4.8 percent, as the Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden announced on Wednesday. This is the third month-on-month increase in a row and the highest since June 2021. Analysts were surprised by the number. Although they had expected a further increase in incoming orders for February, they had only assumed a slight increase of 0.3 percent.
Demand from the countries of the euro zone grew particularly strongly (plus 8.9 percent). Domestic demand also increased at an above-average rate of 5.6 percent. Demand from non-euro countries was 1.4 percent higher.
According to the statisticians, major orders in other vehicle construction are “decisive” for the positive development. These include ships, rail vehicles, aircraft and spacecraft and military vehicles. In addition, growth in orders in the automotive and mechanical engineering sectors in particular had a positive effect. Excluding major orders, the increase in incoming orders was 1.2 percent.
A plus for armaments expenditure: submarine construction by ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems in Kiel
Analysts refuted
However, the increase in January was not as strong as previously known. The Federal Office has revised the month-on-month growth downwards from 1.0 percent to just 0.5 percent. In a year-on-year comparison, incoming orders were also better than expected. The federal agency reported a 5.7 percent decline, while analysts had expected a 9.3 percent drop.
In February, domestic orders rose 5.6 percent month-on-month, the release continued was called. Foreign orders increased by 4.2 percent. The Federal Office pointed out that major orders made a significant contribution to the positive trend in incoming orders.
Cautious optimism is gaining ground
The comment by Andreas Scheuerle from Dekabank also refers to this. He thinks that in order to be able to assess the development correctly, one should not only look at the large orders: “What one sees is gratifying! For the second time in a row, these orders have increased and have made up 3.1 percent since their low point in January . German industry is beginning to recover after the supply bottlenecks and explosion in energy prices last year.”
The chief economist at Commerzbank, Jörg Krämer, generally sees a hopeful sign for the economy in Germany: “Following the clear recovery in the Ifo business climate, this is another good signal for the second quarter. However, this should not be the beginning of a classic upswing. On the contrary, the German economy is likely to shrink somewhat in the second half of the year due to the sharp increase in key interest rates worldwide.”
“A strong injection of orders for the German economy,” says Jens-Oliver Niklasch from LBBW. “Even if you exclude the large orders, that was still a respectable result. Compared to the same month last year, there is still a clear minus in the tables. However, the recovery trend in the industry is now unmistakable.” As with him, the figures also trigger optimism with Alexander Krüger, the chief economist at Hauck, Aufhäuser Lampe: “Reducing material bottlenecks should make it possible to process more orders. The course for more production remains set.”
dk/hb (afp, dpa, rtr)