Xi Jinping and Putin: friendship among autocrats?

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Relations between China and Russia are characterized by the special bond between their heads of government. In an interview, political scientist Dirk Schmidt decodes the underestimated ties between two powerful men.

Two neighbors, two heads of state, two autocrats, two friends

DW: Professor Schmidt, war has been raging in Ukraine for a good year now, and shortly before Russia attacked Beijing and Moscow had agreed on a “partnership without borders.” Recently, the friendship between Russia and China was once again underlined during the state visit of head of state and party leader Xi Jinping to Moscow. To what extent is this much-vaunted friendship between two countries the friendship between two people?

Dirk Schmidt: I believe that the importance of the personal friendship between Putin and Xi is underestimated. The relationship between the two countries is shaped by their personal understanding. Both are connected by a personal closeness, even friendship. This term was also used during the state visit. Xi Jinping, who is certainly alien to sentimentality, put it the same way: they sit across from each other, Putin greets him, and then Xi Jinping says: “President Putin, my very good friend.” This is exactly how it was conveyed in Chinese. This is a special quality and not just any empty phrase.

Dirk Schmidt teaches politics and China studies at the University of Trier

Xi's connection to Russia is enough across generations

When Xi Jinping made his first trip abroad as head of state in 2013, it took him to Moscow. Even then, Xi Jinping had told Putin that he believed they had a “similar character.” He even spoke of a kind of soul mate relationship. Where does that come from?

There are some parallels in their biographies: they come from the same generation; they are only a few months apart in age. Both grew up in a Marxist-Leninist system. That means Putin understands Xi's way of thinking in the structure of the Communist Party.

Conversely, Xi Jinping has an understanding of Russian history, which Putin always strives for. Xi is the son of one of Mao's close associates. His father Xi Zhongxun was one of the leading cadres in relations with Russia. In interviews, Xi has repeatedly reported that as a child he was also influenced by Russian literature and that his father brought him gifts from Russia. And it is also important that Xi Jinping's father, Xi Zhongxun, was persecuted as a Russian spy under Mao in the 1960s. He was considered very pro-Russian.

Both also share the experience of the decline of the autocratic system in the Soviet Union. Xi Jinping has always criticized the collapse of the Soviet Union from the beginning of his tenure to the present day. Putin and Xi have an identical view of this demise of the Soviet Union. From the point of view of Putin and Xi, this downfall is due to the incompetence of former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev.

Another aspect where both share a similar perspective is the concern about so-called color revolutions being brought into their respective systems from outside, from the US or the West.

Presidents of Russia and China celebrate solidarity< /h2>

Cake, ice cream, gifts

Since 2013, Xi and Putin have met at least 40 times. How do you observe the relationship developing over the course of these very frequent encounters?

It's gotten deeper. It was also repeatedly mentioned in connection with this visit that gifts were exchanged. We know that Xi Jinping and Putin sat alone in several meetings. Or in 2019, on the sidelines of a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, where Putin congratulated Xi Jinping on his birthday. He had brought him cake and ice cream. And it is documented by their closest circle that they visited each other in their hotel rooms and spoke privately. That is extremely rare in such a context. These people are very suspicious. That they have cultivated such a closeness and personal level over the last ten years is something special.

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If we look again at both countries, whose autocrats say of each other that they are like brothers. In Chinese there is a hierarchy when it comes to the term brother: there is the big brother, “Gege”, and the little one, the “Didi”. When Xi and Putin were young, the Soviet Union was clearly their “big brother.” How is it today between brotherly friends Xi and Putin?

We see a reversal of the previous ratio. Russia has now clearly become a junior partner, an appendage. That's not good for the Russian soul now, but that's the situation: Russia is isolated, China is the only country of importance that stands by Russia, that also supports Russia. Below the threshold, of course, where China is in danger of running into sanctions from the West.

“Resource colony” Russia?

I read a comment from a Russian analyst who said “we will degenerate into some kind of resource colony”. That's a very harsh statement, but there's a kernel of truth in it. Now we read, for example, how far Russia is increasingly relying on the use of the Chinese currency, the renminbi, to conduct trade, even to process payments within Russia. This clearly shows the discrepancy between the two sides.

If we look at this close personal relationship between Xi and Putin, the “borderless partnership” between the two countries that is invoked, according to which there are also 'no forbidden ones Areas of cooperation': What does that mean for possible Chinese support for Russia in the war of aggression against Ukraine?

First of all, it is striking that the terminology of “partnership without borders” has been used relatively little. I don't think this term has come up in the last two or three days. From the Chinese perspective, it is clear that they are not unconditionally chained to Russia, but want to remain flexible. The need for tactical flexibility is a core tenet of Chinese foreign policy.

The strategic direction is very clear: Russia is needed and Russia is the crucial partner in a multipolar world order turned against the US. At this point you are close to each other. Otherwise, China is clearly following its own interests and is now exploiting the situation in Russia to obtain cheap gas, oil, coal and resources in general.

In this respect, China has a great interest in Russia somehow not necessarily winning this war, but that the war will not end to Russia's disadvantage. China needs Russia. China shares a 4,200 km border with Russia. From the Chinese perspective, it would be an absolute nightmare scenario if Putin's rule were to be abolished if Russia – thought experiment – were to join the West. Then, from a Chinese perspective, an opponent would have emerged right on the 4200-kilometer northern border. This is a very clear security issue. 

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Ensure Russia's survival under Putin

There has already been a lot of speculation about arms deliveries…

I wouldn't rule that out. Only China would do it in such a way that it can be denied. For example, by delivering to Russia via third countries, via Turkey, via Azerbaijan or via the Emirates. There were yes reports to that effect.

China is extremely adept at evading sanctions. Think of supporting North Korea over many years. China should not be underestimated. In the end, if push came to shove, then, in my opinion, China would certainly set all the means and levers in motion to ensure Russia's survival under Putin.

Professor Dirk Schmidt teaches at the Chair for China's Politics and Economics at the University of Trier.

< p>The Spoken räch led Matthias von Hein.