Zoff in the coalition. Will the FDP crisis become a traffic light crisis? After the Liberals lost another election, the dispute intensified.
Flags and flowers at the traditional Ash Wednesday meeting of the FDP
It just doesn't work. In the election on February 12 in Berlin, the FDP once again had to accept a low blow: 4.6 percent. The Liberal Party will no longer be represented in the House of Representatives. Party leader Lindner stood in front of the press on Monday after the election, visibly contrite, and didn't even try to sugarcoat the renewed defeat. He already has practice in such appearances, because since the FDP has governed the country in the federal coalition with the SPD and the Greens – i.e. since December 2021 – the FDP has lost votes five times in a row in state elections. In Lower Saxony and Saarland – and now also in Berlin – the FDP even cleared the five percent hurdle.
After the elections in Berlin, party leader Christian Lindner once again has to announce a defeat for the FDP
The FDP, as the smallest partner in the governing coalition with the SPD and the Greens, benefits the least from government participation at the federal level. “You can call it the FDP's dilemma. The party defined itself from the start as the counterpart to two left-wing parties. In doing so, it gave the impression that it was ultimately unwilling to be in the coalition. So your strategy was always to ensure that the 'cups stay in the cupboard', that the left-wing parties, the Greens and the SPD, don't wreak even more havoc,” Albrecht von Lucke told DW in an interview. He is a political scientist and editor of the monthly magazine “Blätter für deutsche und Internationale Politik”.
For FDP Vice parliamentary group leader Carina Konrad, the FDP was “never more important than today for a good future”
If you ask leading FDP politicians and at the party base, it is repeatedly said behind closed doors that they are not happy with the coalition government in Berlin. Too many bucks to swallow. Too many compromises made. When asked by DW, the deputy parliamentary group leader of the party in the Bundestag put it differently. Carina Konrad regrets that the FDP “did not get through” with future issues in the last elections. But: “I feel very comfortable in this coalition.” Nevertheless, many in the FDP are longing for their “natural” coalition partner, the conservative Union, with which the FDP has repeatedly ruled together at federal level.
It is clear that the FDP has so far paid the highest price in this coalition. The SPD, the Greens and the FDP lined up together under the motto “Dare to make more progress”. For the Liberals, however, since entering the coalition government it has been more like “accepting more setbacks”. In the federal elections at the end of September 2021, the FDP still achieved 11.5 percent. With government participation, the steady downward trend in the polls began. When asked “Which party would you vote for if there were a federal election next Sunday?” recently answered just 6 percent of those questioned with “FDP”.
On the day after the election defeat in Berlin, party leader Christian Lindner tried bravely to stake out his party's future course. It is a course between adjustment to reality and liberal partisanship. Initially, he doesn't blame his political opponents for losing the election in Berlin: “We follow our style. There's one thing the Party of Self-Responsibility will definitely not do: point the finger at others,” says Lindner. In the traffic light coalition, the FDP is a “guarantor” for center politics.
CDU clearly wins state elections in Berlin
But then he also hits pillars that make it clear: The FDP can also confrontation. “A policy against the car is obviously not in the interest of the people,” he says in Berlin. Clear edge against the Greens. The FDP wants modern immigration law, but not unregulated migration. This is also a tip against both coalition partners. The party leader leaves the rough woodwork to his deputy Wolfgang Kubicki. “If there is to be no more road construction, then there will be no more new power lines,” Kubicki threatened the Greens after the Berlin elections. The time for appeasement is over, he added.
The political scientist von Lucke is currently observing a “kind of dual strategy” at the FDP: “Lindner says that he wants to bring the strengths of this coalition to bear more. On the other hand, there is the position of Wolfgang Kubicki, who the 'time of appeasments' with Greens and SPD and has promised even more opposition to their own government.”
Political scientist Albrecht von Lucke describes the FDP as the “opposition in the government”
Dispute over the budget
The fundamental dispute, especially over financial and tax issues, between the Greens and the SPD on the one hand and the FDP on the other comes to light again and again. Especially these days, when the next federal budget is being negotiated. Almost every day there is new trouble about how the state billions should be spent. And one constant: The FDP wants to stick to the debt brake, i.e. only very small borrowing by the state, and categorically excludes tax increases. SPD and Greens can certainly imagine tax increases. Especially for rich people. In the past week, the dispute escalated publicly in an exchange of letters between Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) and Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP).
They use first names and argue – Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP, left) and Economics Minister Robert Habeck (B90/Greens, right) in the Bundestag
In his letter, Lindner emphasized that in view of the economic situation, “an additional burden on Germany as a business location would also be economically wrong”. Economics Minister Habeck, on the other hand, proposes in his letter to discuss “how we can improve income” and reduce environmentally harmful subsidies. The content and tone of the correspondence indicate a deep rift between the two ministers.
There was still harmony in the coalition: Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz, SPD, Economics Minister Robert Habeck, Greens (left) and Finance Minister Christian Lindner, FDP (right) at a government retreat in Meseberg in May 2022
For von Lucke, the dispute shows that party leader Lindner knows that “the profile of the FDP must not go under. And that's why he's relying on confrontation to a certain extent.” Even within the FDP, the harsh tone met with criticism. “In my opinion, some of the discussions could be accompanied by less loud music,” Karina Conrad, deputy parliamentary group leader, told DW. The SPD, the largest partner in the governing coalition, is openly annoyed by the coalition dispute and is more close to the Greens on the tax issue. SPD co-leader Saskia Esken said in the direction of the FDP: “Rowing and constantly calling for profile will not help. It's all about responsible cooperation and the well-being of the country.”
That Trauma of 2013
Leaving the coalition government is a taboo for the FDP. The shock of 2013, when the party failed to reach the five percent hurdle in federal elections and became the APO, was too deep. to the extra-parliamentary opposition. It was a shock for the FDP, which had repeatedly played a key role in shaping politics in post-war Germany in coalition governments with the Union or SPD.
After the defeat, Christian Lindner took over as party chairman in 2013. He rebuilt the party and reinstated it into government responsibility. And despite all the defeats and disagreements in the current government: Christian Lindner seems to be firmly in the saddle despite the FDP crisis. FDP deputy faction leader Carina Konrad put it succinctly: “Yes, he's the right one,” she told DW. And that is also the summary of political scientist Albrecht von Lucke: “There is no one who could and wanted to carry out the coup against Lindner at this time, because this would weaken the FDP even more.”