Published 26 January 2023 at 14.29
Economics. Nordea has published its latest mortgage rate forecast, where the bank predicts that the Riksbank will raise the policy rate by 0.5 percentage points in February, followed by another increase in April and possibly a third increase this summer.
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Chief economist Annika Winsth believes that inflation in December was a cold shower for the Riksbank and that it is still too high, despite expectations that it will fall back this spring.
The bank does not rule out the possibility of another hike this summer, due to the ECB's aggressive interest rate hikes expected this spring.
The ECB's actions pressure the Riksbank to act, as a weak krona is a problem and a risk which could lead to importing more inflation.
Winsth also points out that mortgage customers should brace for the floating 3-month interest rate to rise by at least 0.75 percentage points already this spring.
The variable mortgage interest rate for the summer would thus be around 6 percent. This would mean interest costs of SEK 5,000 per month per million borrowed.
However, this is too much for many households, which have borrowed many millions with little income. Especially if electricity costs remain high and unemployment rises at the same time.
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