A turbulent year lies behind the German government. 2023 also promises to be nerve-wracking. What challenges does German politics face in the next twelve months?
The government when it started in December 2021: nobody suspected anything about the many crises
The coalition of SPD, Greens and FDP in Germany is looking to the future with optimism despite various mishaps and disputes. The chairmen of the three governing parties published a guest article in the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung” and stated: “We want to make Germany more social and fair, modern and digital, more competitive and climate-neutral.” The coalition partners could have written that a year ago .
In fact, for the so-called traffic light coalition, 2022 was characterized by a continuous succession of crises, both national and international, and that will probably remain the case in 2023. And these crises had absolutely nothing to do with what the government had set out to do when it was launched in December 2021.
The German government faces three major challenges: It must continue to ensure a secure energy supply in the country, even with rising prices, promote social cohesion and peace in times of war and define itself more clearly in foreign policy. Especially towards China.
Securing the energy supply
The government has raised a whopping 200 billion euros to ensure the supply of the German population and economy after the almost complete end of deliveries of oil, gas and coal from Russia over this and the next winter. What comes after that also depends on how hands-on the government acts next year.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) stated in an interview with the “Funke Mediengruppe” that he considers it unlikely that energy prices will fall to a level before the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. “We probably won't go back to the low prices we had before the war.” But the situation will remain manageable “because we will have new import options available”. Germany will remain a strong and successful industrial nation.
Olaf Scholz in office for one year
But then the rapid expansion of renewable energies is necessary. But there was already a lot of dispute in the coalition in 2022 about the pace and the measures in energy policy, for example with the gas levy that was ultimately overturned by Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) or the continued operation of the three German nuclear power plants still on the grid until April into.
This must not be repeated in 2023. CDU chairman Friedrich Merz told the “Rheinische Post” that the coalition argued too much and was spending too little time trying to achieve a turn for the better in economic and energy policy. And he added: “In school one would say , she tried her best.”
Maintain unity
The government also has to expend a lot of energy to strengthen social cohesion in times of major crises and uncertainties among the population. Most recently, the uncovering of a planned, perfidious “coup d'état” by a group of right-wing extremist “Reichsbürger” alarmed the Germans.
Protests against government policies in Frankfurt an der Oder on October 3, 2022
The government must also communicate arms deliveries and solidarity for the attacked Ukraine in 2023 even better and, above all, uniformly. According to a new study, many people, especially in eastern Germany, are much more skeptical about support for Ukraine than western Germans.
In a study by the Mercator Forum Migration and Democracy (Midem) at the Technical University of Dresden, only 28 percent of the East Germans surveyed want to maintain support for the attacked country even if this leads to higher energy prices in Germany. In West Germany it was at least 42 percent. And every third East German agrees with the statement: “NATO provoked Russia for so long that Russia had to go to war.” In western Germany that was 22 percent.
The foreign expert of the CDU in the Bundestag, Roderick Kiesewetter, therefore summarized in an interview with DW that the government must “completely implement the turning point in the areas of security, economy and society. Rapid implementation is necessary to protect our freedom and democracy against the Russian to defend hybrid war in Europe and to be armed in the beginning systemic competition with China.”
Roderich Kiesewetter (CDU): “Reduce China's influence quickly!”
This also means that Germany is making greater efforts than before to ensure that its positions are consistent within the European Union. The multi-billion euro aid packages from the Germans for their population against inflation and high energy prices without any major agreements had turned quite a few EU partners against the government in Berlin.
Uniform policy towards Russia and China
< p>The policy towards China and Russia is actually one of the main tasks for the government in 2023. Kiesewetter told DW that the government now has the task of “diversifying our energy supply and breaking away from the cheap value chains from China, diversifying better and recognizing China's aggressive and hybrid approach. In the next few years, China will use the military carry out the attack on Taiwan – we must therefore now significantly reduce China's dependencies and influence as quickly as possible.”
At the beginning of November, for example, the Chancellor's trip to China also caused resentment within the coalition. It was the first visit to China by a Western head of government since President Xi Jinping's controversial re-election on October 23.
Too cozy with China? Olaf Scholz and President Xi Jingping in Beijing in November
And despite harsh criticism from Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens), for example, the Chancellor allowed the Chinese shipping company Cosco to take a minority stake in a terminal operating company in the Port of Hamburg. Unifying the course towards Beijing: This is another major challenge for the government in 2023.