Africa has some important elections coming up in 2023, including Nigeria. They will show whether democracy will be stabilized. But the continent's crises remain, say experts.
Will democracy win? Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo will elect new presidents in 2023
With the turn of the year, upcoming political appointments and events come closer into focus: In Africa, state or parliamentary elections will be held in 17 countries in 2023, which will have an impact on the continent, says the Economist Intelligence Unit and warns: The time of the elections could be in Africa very volatile and there is a high risk of political protests, mass demonstrations and strikes in a number of countries.
Is democracy stabilized?
“First of all, it remains to be seen whether the coup drama that we saw on the continent in 2022 will continue or whether the year 2023 will mark a break with this phenomenon, especially in light of the recent coup attempt in São Tomé and Príncipe” , says Fonteh Akum, director of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in a DW interview. According to the authorities, an attempt to overthrow the government on November 25, 2022 failed in the island state in the Gulf of Guinea.
Primary elections in Nigeria – the opposition party PDP chose ex-Vice President Abubakar Atiku as their candidate
A key factor next year will be whether democracy will be consolidated or further pushed back. “The key elections to watch are in Nigeria, South Africa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zimbabwe, with some of those countries going to be violent,” predicts Alex Vines, head of the Africa program at the London think tank Chatham House .
Nigeria: Choice of Change
Nigeria has seen a surge in civic and political engagement among young people in the run-up to the upcoming presidential elections in late February 2023, but also political violence and unrest. ISS Managing Director Akum emphasizes: “The Nigerian elections are really important because it is one of the largest economies on the continent and Nigeria is struggling with security problems,” says Akum. Important also because of the youth in Nigeria who could shift the balance of power between the major political parties in one direction or another.
Presidential elections in Nigeria: Peter Obi runs as a candidate and is supported by large sections of the youth
A few months before the elections in Nigeria, the political atmosphere in the country of 217 million people is tense. The previous President Muhammadu Buhari is no longer standing after two terms in office. It's a choice of change, says Akum. Opposing each other are the major political parties, the currently governing APC (All Progressive Congress) and the largest opposition party, the PDP (People's Democratic Party). From Akum's point of view, however, a third candidate could have a significant impact on the competition: Peter Obi, a businessman and Labor Party candidate, is currently attracting a lot of young Nigerians.
Crises persist
West Africa is characterized by increasing instability and the spread of violent extremists, says Akum. The military recently staged a coup in the Sahel countries of Burkina Faso and Mali – in Mali for the second time in a short space of time. One has to observe how their transition is shaping up.
According to Alex Vines, the continent's crises will continue in 2023. “Especially in the Sahel, especially in Mali and Burkina Faso, but also in Niger,” Vines told DW. The situation in Cameroon and Nigeria remains worrying as there is a high level of insecurity in parts of these countries. The focus is also on whether the peace agreement agreed between the Ethiopian government and the breakaway province of Tigray in autumn 2022 will stand. The north of Mozambique remains a cause for concern – there, jihadist terror is driving people to flee.
Security crisis in West Africa stops: government soldiers on patrol in Mali
Eastern Congo is also considered a trouble spot. The focus is on the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for December 20, 2023 in the Democratic Republic of the Republic, and the behavior of incumbent President Félix Tshisekedi, Akum said, referring to the violence by militias in the east and its impact on the conduct of the elections .
According to Akum, what matters in all elections is how the electoral commissions effectively manage the processes and handle election challenges. President Felix Tshisekedi took over from his longtime predecessor, Joseph Kabila. Tshisekedi is expected to compete again. A likely challenger is opposition politician Martin Fayulu.
South Africa at a crossroads
In South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC), the former liberation organization that has governed South Africa since the end of apartheid, must regain trust: President Cyril Ramaphosa was confirmed as party leader at the ANC party conference in mid-December. This is also seen as setting the course for a top candidate and a possible second term in office for Ramaphosa as head of state – the presidential and parliamentary elections will take place in 2024.
Even if the party has expressed its confidence in him with the step – Ramaphosa is becoming popular among the population laboriously win back: He is accused of money laundering – the opposition demanded his resignation. The ANC's unchallenged position of power in elections is at stake. This is due to years of poor governance: contradictory policies, maladministration and large-scale corruption.
South Africa at a crossroads: President Cyril Ramaphosa is accused of corruption – the opposition is demanding his resignation
In neighboring Zimbabwe, the newly founded, largest opposition party Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) led by opposition veteran Nelson Chamisa is likely to challenge incumbent Emmerson Mnangagwa in the presidential elections. But the brutality with which Zimbabwe's ruling ZANU-PF (Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front) reacted to challenges to their rule in the past gives rise to fears of unrest – the country has been marked by instability for over two decades: hyperinflation has impoverish the once prosperous country.
Rising inflation increases debt
Political and humanitarian crises are compounded by economic factors: “Africa economic recovery from the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis in 2022 has been interrupted by a series of shocks,” says analyst Alex Vines include supply shortages and spiking inflation, also fueled by the global impact of Russia's attack on Ukraine. This leaves debt servicing a problem for many countries. In addition, there would be high borrowing costs under the worst conditions ever. Vines: “This trend will continue in 2023, but there will continue to be African economic growth.”
According to Vines' assessment, the large economies of Nigeria and South Africa are likely to grow more slowly: Commodity prices, especially for energy products, metals and minerals, however, would continue to increase – also investors and buyers tried to diversify their supply chains away from Russia. Vines points out that a number of countries – including Angola, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Namibia, Tanzania and Zambia – will benefit.