The forecast: 52,000 Ukrainians to Sweden

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Published 24 November 2022 at 17.02

Domestic. Approximately 52,000 people from Ukraine are estimated to seek protection in Sweden this year, according to the Migration Agency's latest forecast.
– But there is great uncertainty about how the war will develop. We cannot rule out that the number of people seeking protection in Sweden will again increase sharply, says Annika Gottberg, director of planning at the Swedish Migration Agency.

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During the autumn, between 300 and 400 applications for protection from people who fled Ukraine were registered per week in Sweden.

The development has been just below the Migration Agency's main scenario, which previously was 55,000 asylum seekers during 2022.

– In the last forecast of the year, we are therefore writing down the main scenario slightly, to around 52,000 asylum seekers this year, says Annika Gottberg in a dispatch.

For 2023, the previous main scenario is around 15,000 asylum seekers left. The Swedish Migration Agency states that more people may leave Ukraine due to more difficult conditions during the winter months, but the assessment is that they are mainly looking for neighboring countries.

– However, a further escalation of the war cannot be ruled out. We therefore have a higher scenario which means that significantly more, upwards of 100,000 people, can seek protection in Sweden during 2023, says Annika Gottberg.