Published 20 November 2022 at 19.38
Economy. The major banks are now increasing their forecasts for how much prices will fall in the housing market, writes Dagens Industri. SBAB calculates a fall of 22 percent – but then most things should go very well.
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According to the forecasts, electricity prices are back to normal levels at the beginning of 2023, at the same time that temporary inflation finally falls back and the hope of lower mortgage interest rates can once again begin to grow among the Swedish people.
Even the strikingly low unemployment is expected to persist right through the six-month-long recession that the banks calculate with.
– The forecast is based on the labor market we see today, whose development has been surprisingly strong, says SBAB's chief economist Robert Boije to Dagens Industri .
Helena Bornevall, macroeconomist at Handelsbanken, tells the newspaper that the price drop was faster than expected during the autumn and that the situation may worsen when two-thirds of mortgage borrowers are forced to renegotiate their interest rates within a year.
SEB warns that a 20 percent drop in prices is the most positive scenario that the bank expects.
– When housing prices have already fallen 10 percent from their peak at the beginning of the year, our best assessment is that it is as nothing left before we are done, says SEB's chief economist Jens Magnusson to DI.