Main memory: High stocks ensure a clearer price slide

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Micron has already indicated it, now market researchers are following suit. The prices for DRAM chips are expected to fall significantly in this quarter: instead of around ten percent, which had already been forecast, in the worst case they will now almost double. The forecast for the fourth quarter is also worse.

Constantly expanded production capacities in a cooling market with already very high inventories can only have one consequence: In order to continue getting rid of the chips, the Korean industry giants Samsung and SK Hynix in particular want to act on the price, writes TrendForce in today's analysis. Other providers in the market, such as Micron, will probably have to follow suit, so that the situation in the overall market is likely to develop towards lower prices. The previously forecast price reduction for chips of 8 to 13 percent is now expected to rise to between 13 and 18 percent.

The DRAMeXchange memory exchange has been going steadily for weeks down, albeit very slowly. In early June, the average spot price for a single standard 16 Gigabit DDR4-3200 chip was just over $7, now it's around $6.

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RAM spot prices on June 2, 2022 (Image: DRAMeXchange)
RAM spot price in Asia on December 14th (Image: DRAMeXchange)
RAM spot price on September 1st (Image: DRAMeXchange)

DDR5 memory prices continue to fall

Something similar can be observed in free trade in this country. There are currently 213 DDR5 products in the ComputerBase price comparison that can be delivered directly from stock. The entry-level prices are now 139 euros for 32 GB DDR4-4800, which are offered as a dual-channel kit. Prices have only fallen by around ten percent since the beginning of June, no longer compared to the weeks and months before. In this best-case scenario, the gigabyte often costs no more than 5 euros, and in this way, and above all together with the upcoming further price reductions, clears the way for future platforms that rely on the memory standard, above all AMD Raphael aka Ryzen 7000 and Intel Raptor Lake as Refresh from Alder Lake.

Price development of DDR5 memory in the last 6 months (picture: price comparison)

If you want it faster, you still have to dig deep into your pocket. The step from DDR5-4800 to DDR5-5200 is clear, but doesn't bring much performance either. DDR5-6000, the next big brand, is at least 100 euros more expensive than the basic version for a similar 32 GB kit consisting of two modules, and you have to pay at least around 250 euros.

DDR4 is also continuing to give way in retail

DDR4 has hardly shown any movement in retail since the end of 2021 . Here and there, some modules are a little cheaper for a while, others are more expensive, and then the game starts all over again next month and maybe vice versa. The example kit from G.Skill (16 GB DDR4-3200 CL16) that the editors always use is now at 52 euros, slightly less than at the beginning of June

Price development for DDR4-3200 in stores since February of this year (Image: price comparison)

With faster DDR4 memory, the price drop is somewhat more pronounced, and it also competes more directly with DDR5. You can already get faster modules based on the DDR4-4133 and DDR4-4266 standards for less than 100 euros, but most of them are still above the mark.