The Ukraine war and high energy prices are costing Germany hundreds of billions in added value, according to a study. Employment also suffers.
The Institute for Labor Market and Vocational Research (IAB) in Nuremberg is part of the Federal Employment Agency (BA).
The German economy will lose over 260 billion euros by 2030 due to the war in Ukraine and the skyrocketing energy prices Added value.
This is the conclusion of a study that three research institutes have worked out together: the Institute for Labor Market and Vocational Training (IAB), the Federal Institute for Vocational Training and the Society for Economic Structure Research.
Fewer jobs
According to the study published on Tuesday, the conflict is also damaging employment: In the coming year, around 240,000 fewer people could be employed than without the war, and the average for the years 2022 to 2028 would be 150,000 people.
That will be macroeconomic According to the study, the price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 will be around 1.7 percent lower than if the Russian attack on Ukraine had not taken place.
“Economic growth is being weakened in particular by the increased prices for fossil raw materials. They are a burden on both the export economy and the consumption options of private households.”
No fear of recession?
For their forecast, the researchers assumed that the sanctions against Russia would remain in place until 2030, even if the war ended by then. “Because of the effects of the war, the post-Corona upswing has failed,” explained Enzo Weber from the IAB.
The hospitality industry is suffering particularly
According to the study, one of the big losers in the current situation will again be the hospitality industry, which was already badly hit by the coronavirus pandemic and is now likely to feel the loss of purchasing power among citizens. “Because the lower consumer spending of private households leads to a significantly lower need for employees here,” says the study.
Other losers are energy-intensive sectors such as the chemical industry and metal production, but also social services.< /p>
For 2030, the study sees a positive effect of 60,000 employees. However, this only applies to the assumption that energy prices do not rise even higher. Should this happen, Germany would slide into recession, Weber warned.
In a scenario with energy prices rising twice as fast, the researchers see the greatest impact on the labor market in 2024, with 660,000 fewer workers than without the war.
bea/hb (dpa, reuters)