US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan escalated the great power rivalry between China and the US. This also has an impact on Germany.
Protesters in Taipei (Am Tuesday): The Taiwan question could spark a war
When Shieh Jhy-Wey looks out of his office window, he sees the German Cathedral in Berlin directly. The representative of Taiwan in Germany resides in the best location. It would take Shieh less than half an hour to walk to the Embassy of the People's Republic of China on the banks of the Spree.
And yet for Shieh the distance is measured in worlds rather than kilometers. In the DW interview, he explains that the current tensions are not between countries, but between “two value systems”, that of “dictatorship” and that of “democracy”.
Can't call himself ambassador: Shieh Jhu-Wey, Taiwan's representative in Germany
With After the visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, who as speaker of the US House of Representatives is after all number three in the American system of government, tensions in the Beijing-Washington-Taipei triangle escalated to the point of a military conflict. And again, German foreign policy is faced with the dilemma.
Pelosi: Brave or irresponsible?
If Germany clearly opposes China's aggressiveness, there is a risk of a serious conflict with its most important trading partner. If it refrains from criticizing Beijing, the much-touted value orientation of German foreign policy seems unbelievable.
And: It is becoming more difficult to stay out of the increasingly heated great power conflict between China and the USA.
The Foreign Minister speaks, the Ambassador is summoned
Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock had clearly backed Taiwan on Monday: “We will not accept it if international law is broken and a larger neighbor attacks its smaller neighbor in violation of international law – and that of course also applies to China,” the Green politician intended told her attending a UN conference on nuclear weapons in New York.
The German Ambassador to China, Patricia Flor, was summoned to the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Tuesday. Afterwards, Flor wrote on Twitter: “Frank discussion today! During my meeting with Deputy Foreign Minister Deng Li, I emphasized: Germany stands by the one-China policy. The exchange with the Taiwanese authorities is part of this policy. The threat of military force is among none Circumstances acceptable, as stated by Secretary of State Baerbock.”
One China Policy
It is due to the one China policy that Ambassador Flor speaks of the “Taiwanese authorities” and not of a Taiwanese government. Just as Taiwan does not have an embassy in Germany's capital, just a “Taipei Representation”.
In addition, there are no contacts at a higher state level: neither the head of state nor the head of government is welcome in Germany, nor the vice president, the defense minister or the foreign minister; and there are no visas for the Speaker of Parliament and the Chief Justice either. Commitment to the One China policy is one of the cornerstones of any bilateral relationship Beijing has with other capitals.
< p>Video summit of Chancellor Scholz and President Xi (in May): commitment to the One China policy
Accordingly, Germany does not officially recognize Taiwan as an independent state. Taiwan is considered part of China. Most countries in the world think so, including the USA. Even Taiwan itself formally calls itself the “Republic of China” – and its constitution lays claim to the whole of China to this day.
Taiwan does not do this voluntarily. An amendment to the constitution could be construed as an official declaration of independence. And after the “anti-segregation law” passed in Beijing in 2005, this could be the reason for a violent reunification of the parts of the country that have been separated since 1949.
Intensive contacts within narrow limits
Despite the narrow limits of the one-China policy, Germany and China maintain close ties. The Federal Foreign Office emphasizes on its website that Taiwan and Germany are “important value partners who are linked by close and substantial economic, cultural and scientific ties”. The Federal Republic even maintains a kind of substitute embassy on the island: The “German Institute Taipei”.
Taiwan even found its way into the coalition agreement of the governing parties SPD, Greens and FDP. On page 124 it is stated: “The status quo in the Taiwan Strait can only be changed peacefully and by mutual consent. Within the framework of the EU's one-China policy, we support the relevant participation of democratic Taiwan in international organizations.”< /p>
However, the friendship with the value partner ends where security policy begins. For decades, the federal government has been refusing the delivery of armaments to Taiwan.
TSMC booth in Nanjing (2020): Chips from the Taiwan manufacturer as an export item of strategic importance
< p>Otherwise business is booming. Germany is Taiwan's largest trading partner in Europe. In 2021, goods worth around 22 billion euros were exchanged. This put Taiwan in 25th place among Germany's most important foreign trade partners.
In the background: China – and the rivalry with the USA
However, the People's Republic of China is the number one German trading partner. Twelve times as many goods were exchanged with the billion dollar market as with Taiwan. In view of the growing systemic differences and the geostrategic rivalry between the USA and China, however, the question arises: How long will the Chinese pillar of the German business model continue to support it?
As early as 2019, the EU stated in a strategy paper that China was a partner, competitor and rival at the same time. The system rivalry is becoming more and more important.
German frigate “Bayern” in Tokyo harbor (in November ): Signal to the Chinese leadership
This will also be reflected in the national security strategy that the German Foreign Ministry is currently working on. As early as 2020, the then federal government under Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) had passed new guidelines for the Indo-Pacific, which talked a lot about security policy, strategic partnerships and the “intensifying differences between China and the USA”. The dispatch of the frigate “Bavaria” to the Indo-Pacific last year was also intended as a signal to Beijing to set “a sign for free sea routes and compliance with international law”.
European sovereignty
Ever since Donald Trump, the buzzword “decoupling” has been making the rounds: decoupling the economy from China. Political scientist Josef Braml speaks in connection with this in an interview with DW of an “economic war”. In view of the increased tensions in the course of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the political scientist warns: “Even if there is no military conflict, there will be the Europeans and above all we Germans are the victims of an increasing disentanglement from the Chinese economy, which Washington is now pushing.”
Braml, who published his book “The Transatlantic Illusion” in the spring, is also assuming because of the possible  ;Donald Trump's return to the White House on greater strategic sovereignty in Europe. The economic union must become a political and also a military union.
It would continue to be on the side of the USA. “But as a partner and not as a vassal. If we don't succeed in this, we will become collateral damage in a major conflict between the USA and China,” fears the USA expert.