Germany: what comes after the 9-euro ticket?

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The 9-euro ticket is still available until the end of August. The ruling traffic light coalition is arguing about how to proceed. And the discussion about the future of public transport is picking up speed.

Travelling has rarely been cheaper – and more popular than with the 9-euro ticket: rush to catch a regional train at the beginning of June

You can still get big ones for little money until August 31st go to Germany. The ticket costs just nine euros and opens the doors to all local and regional transport for one month. These 9-euro tickets have been sold in Germany since June 1st.

The 9-euro ticket is part of a whole package of measures to reduce the burden on the population caused by the rapidly increasing fuel, energy and other living costs. At the same time, it is a gigantic experiment in the future of local public transport. The supporters of the offer hope to be able to persuade motorists to switch to public transport. In the long term, this could not only relieve the streets of the cities. It would also reduce fossil fuel consumption – especially from Russia.

“The main goal is to win new customers and get them to come back. The campaign is intended to help them get to know the possibilities and advantages of local public transport,” confirmed a spokesman for Deutsche Bahn in a statement to DW. “Retaining these passengers in the long term is important in terms of transport and climate policy.”

9-Euro-Ticket: More than an environmental gimmick?

However, these long-term ambitions are on a collision course with previous plans. Because from September 1st, the cheap tickets should be over and the transport companies should sell the tickets again at the usual tariffs. Deutsche Bahn and municipal associations are pushing for a kind of successor to the 9-euro ticket, and they also want more funds for better service.

Popular and subsidized

After all, the 9-euro ticket was sold around 21 million times in the first month of validity alone, June. And significantly fuller buses and trains showed: It was used extensively. As a result, the inexpensive local and regional transport is a complete success. The federal government paid the bill: Berlin paid two and a half billion euros to regional and municipal transport companies to compensate for the cheap ticket.

Before the expiry of the costly success model, there is now a controversial discussion about what a successor solution could look like. The suggestions range from a permanent continuation of the 9-euro ticket to monthly tickets for 29 or 69 euros to annual tickets for 365 euros. While the 9-euro ticket made it possible to travel from Munich in the south to Flensburg in the north, these tickets could also only be valid in certain regions, depending on how they were designed.

Wants a successor for the 9-euro ticket: Green party leader Ricarda Lang

However, the ruling traffic light coalition is at odds as to whether there should be a successor at all and what that could look like. The Greens in particular are pushing to continue the massive subsidization of local and regional transport. Green Party leader Ricarda Lang proposed the abolition of tax breaks for company cars for financing.

Red line: black zero

Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner from the FDP, however, rejects an extension of the 9-euro ticket as not financially viable. “We can't pay for it because we have to comply with the debt brake again in 2023,” he recently justified his rejection to the Funke media group.

The so-called debt brake in the Basic Law obliges the federal government to maintain a balanced budget. It has been suspended in recent years because of the pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine. The Ministry of Finance declined to comment on Lindner's statements.

Lindner's Free Democrats advocate lower government spending and less regulation. Although they are the smallest party in the governing coalition, they keep trying to exert disproportionate influence.

Minister of Transport Volker Wissing (left) and Minister of Finance Christian Lindner: Black zero is the priority

The Liberals' coalition partners, the Social Democrats and the Greens, are pushing for higher government spending. In doing so, they want to alleviate people's concerns about inflation – also by making local public transport cheaper. But Lindner has defined compliance with the debt brake as a red line. At the same time, the coalition agreement stipulates that funds for the transport companies at state and local level should be increased.

The Ministry of Transport is headed by Lindner's FDP party friend Volker Wissing. Although he has expressed his fundamental openness to a permanently favorable transport offer. However, he first wants to analyze the results of the current regulation before giving his ministerial blessing to a successor system. That could last until November. This means that another fare reduction cannot be expected before the beginning of next year.

Without subsidies: higher prices

That might be too late for many. Germany must reckon with exploding energy prices this winter and the possibility of a Russian gas supply freeze. The time between the expiry of the 9-euro ticket at the end of August and the start of a possible successor is critical: it is the phase right after the summer holidays in which people will again be more dependent on public transport – or their own car . State and municipal transport companies are already warning: Without additional help from the federal government, they will have to increase fares to compensate for the increased costs – especially for energy.

Not only the tickets sold and the fuller trains and buses speak of the popularity of the 9-euro ticket. Surveys also confirm the great popularity among the population. Still, some analysts are reluctant to speak of success without accurate data – let alone a clear definition of what success actually means.

Definitely not commuters who switched from the car to the train: many used the 9-euro ticket for fun

“The number of passengers has increased. I think that's obvious,” Heike Link told DW. The traffic analyst at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) continues: “You have to look the structure of the journeys, and that's what we're trying to do.”

Link said her team is waiting for them Data from a study with 3,000 participants. They had agreed to log exactly how they used which means of transport and when. By September, Link hopes to have a detailed picture of how the €9 ticket has impacted usage habits.

Driving to the office or for pleasure?

According to a survey by the Association of German Transport Companies (VDV) at the beginning of the month, the demand for public transport has risen by 25 percent. Every fifth buyer of a 9-euro ticket has not previously traveled by bus or train. Behind these numbers lies a crucial question: “What was the purpose of your trip? That's the question you have to ask if you want to judge whether it was a success or not,” says Link.

Link is skeptical that the €9 ticket has achieved its main goal: getting commuters to abandon their cars. It also has to do with the season. The ticket was issued in the summer season, when tourists arrive and workers go on vacation. The transport analyst suspects that most of the increased demand was for pleasure: people would have used the trains for a weekend trip rather than to get to the office.

Without data, it's also difficult to assess , what exactly boosts the number of passengers: Is it more the low price, the convenience of a monthly flat rate or something completely different? And what would be the most appropriate next step?

“These are the aspects that should be discussed”, Link demands. “But nobody in Germany is discussing it.”

Matthias von Hein has adapted the article from English.