Melting glaciers in Central Asia are flooding entire villages. Parts of northern Pakistan are therefore cut off from the drinking water supply. The disappearing ice in the Himalayas is a disaster for millions.
The moment when the bridge in Hassanabad in Pakistan collapses
“We ran out of drinking water at home, so I had to move my family to a hotel,” said Siddique Baig, disaster risk analyst at the University of Islamabad's High Mountain Institute. At the beginning of May, the glacial lake near Hassanabad in northern Pakistan erupted, flooding entire villages and roads, destroying two small hydroelectric power plants and a bridge. At least 75 people died. The water pipes to Siddique Baig's home, Aliabat Hunza, not far from Hassanabad, were destroyed by the floods. The village is on dry land.
70 percent of the region's fresh water comes from these same glaciers, Baig estimates. The already scarce rain cannot cover the demand.
It may not be the last time that the region is hit by flooding from erupting glacial lakes. Pakistan's Climate Change Ministry warned in May that the unusually high temperatures could rupture 33 glacial lakes, burying villages and valleys.
When glaciers melt, the water backs up in natural dams. If the dams have too much inflow due to high temperatures, they can break.
It was only in the past few weeks that some of them finally overflowed, according to risk expert Baig. He cites heat waves and suddenly rising temperatures as the reason for this. In April, record-breaking 49 degrees Celsius were measured in Pakistan.
Pakistan's ice masses could shrink to a third by the end of the century
A few years ago, the glaciers in the Karakoram mountain range were still partially growing, says Baig. Today they are no longer stable. “The whole region, all of high Asia is affected by climate change. It's a reality.”
Global warming in the Himalayas twice as fast for Asia's glaciers
The mountainous region of Central Asia, also known as High Asia, includes the mountain ranges of the Himalayas, Karakorum and the Hindu Kush to the west. The mountain range, which stretches across the bordering countries of China, India, Afghanistan, Butan, Nepal and Pakistan, is home to a total of 55,000 glaciers. These unique ice masses store more fresh water than any other region on earth, after the North Pole or the South Pole. The naturally melting water feeds the ten most important rivers in Asia, on whose banks almost two billion people live. According to a World Bank report from 2015, the three largest rivers in South Asia alone, the Ganges, the Indus and the Brahmaputra, are the source of water for the livelihood of around 750 million people. Also the longest river on the continent, the Yangtze River in China and the Mekong in Southeast Asia depend on Himalayan water. As large as these water supplies may be, they are not infinite.
People in Afghanistan are also dependent on drinking water from the glaciers
Less snow in the mountains and man-made climate change are driving glacier death at a rapid pace. According to the United Nations Development Program, temperatures in the Himalayas are rising twice as fast as the global average. Calculations assume that if the temperature is not limited to 1.5 degrees, between half and two-thirds of the total ice mass in the mountains of Central Asia will have disappeared by the end of the century.
“What we have to think about is agriculture. Most people in the region make their living from agriculture,” says Atanu Bhattacharya, assistant professor and glaciologist at JIS University in Kolkata, India. According to Bhattacharya, there is still enough fresh water, especially in the mountain regions of India. At the moment, however, it is completely unclear how much water will be available to the regions in the future. One thing is clear, however, according to the expert. “The glaciers are definitely going to melt”.
According to the glacier researcher, investments must therefore be made in better water management and water treatment today.
According to the climate risk index of the non-governmental organization Germanwatch, Nepal and Pakistan are among the ten countries most threatened by climate change in the world. Afghanistan and India are in the top twenty.
After a glacier broke in India in 2021, a mudslide swept away entire villages
Hydroelectric power plants: first flooding, then drying out
If the ice melts and glacial lakes break out, not only villages and residents are in danger, but also the local energy supply. Scientists estimate that over 250 hydroelectric power stations in the Himalayas lie on the discharge paths of possible glacial lake breaches. That means they could potentially be inundated by additional water from the bursting glacial lakes. A third of the power plants could experience inflows that are far in excess of the water volume they were built for.
Even if the power plants were not damaged, Bhattacharya sees energy supply problems in the affected regions. “Now there is no water shortage because more water runs off. But if we don't get water from the mountains in the future, we won't be able to generate electricity either.” The reservoirs of the power plants would simply dry up and the investments would be lost. India banned the construction of new hydroelectric power stations upstream of the Ganges last year. This is to prevent rivers in the lower reaches of the river from drying out in the long term.
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GERD – structure of national importance
With a height of 145 meters and a length of almost two kilometers, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) with an output of five GW is intended to double Ethiopia's electricity generation. In the absence of approval from the countries downstream, the World Bank refused to finance it. The $4.8 billion construction was made possible by private donations and government bonds – and became a structure of national importance in Ethiopia.
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Concerns down the Nile
It is true that Ethiopia has promised to only use the Nile water dammed up in the GERD for energy production and not divert anything for the irrigation of the country. But downstream, Egypt and Sudan fear the megadam will cut out enough water to farm the Nile Delta.
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Lots of mega dams on the Mekong
The world's largest producer of hydroelectric power is China. It is – after coal – the second largest source of electricity in the country. Since the 1990s, the People's Republic has built eleven huge dams on the Mekong River. But Laos, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia are also dependent on the water of the Mekong. China's mega dams are having a devastating impact on them.
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Drought in Cambodia
Because China's dams hold back enormous amounts of water, the level and flow of the Mekong downstream have changed drastically. Droughts are becoming more frequent. Fish populations are declining and agricultural land is drying up. This hits fishing and agriculture particularly hard in Thailand and Cambodia. But the Mekong Delta in Vietnam is also suffering from the changes.
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Financier China
China is also investing in hundreds of hydropower projects abroad, including in Laos, Portugal, Kazakhstan, Argentina and across Africa. In the past, such infrastructure projects were often financed by the World Bank. But unlike these, China does not depend on the approval of other countries from the river basin. And so the concerns of the neighboring countries are often ignored.
Evictions for Electricity
The Souapiti Dam in Guinea is managed by the China International Water & Electric Corporation funded. With an output of 450 MW, it should significantly improve the country's energy supply, where only a minority has access to electricity. But more than 250 square kilometers of land were flooded for the reservoir and around 16,000 people were displaced from their villages, according to Human Rights Watch.
- Dams: water, power and politics
Reservoir instead of waterfall
The Itaipu Dam on the Paraná River between Brazil and Paraguay flooded large areas of forest, one of the most impressive waterfalls in the world, and displaced 65,000 people. Despite an agreement on cooperation in the construction of the joint hydroelectric power station, the dam still causes tensions between the two countries to this day.
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Concern about the Colorado
Tensions on the border between Mexico and the USA are not only due to the gangs of people smugglers who smuggle people from the south into the USA, some of them on dangerous routes. The often low water level of the Colorado also causes concern. By the time the river reaches Mexico, it will have crossed seven US states and numerous dams that divert its water to irrigate US crops.
- Dams: water, power and politics
The Morelos Dam – a positive example
However, Mexico and the US are working together, using the Morelos Dam on their shared border to irrigate the Mexicali Valley. The course of the natural river in the Colorado Delta is imitated. For Scott Moore, specialist for water resources at the World Bank Group, a successful example of successful cooperation between states, environmental groups and agriculture.
Less air pollution, less glacier melt
High temperatures, hardly any snow and rain in the mountains are just one reason for glacier death. Around half of the ice masses that have melted so far have been caused by man-made air pollution.
When fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas or field residues are burned, black soot and particulate matter, also known as “black carbon”, are produced. Carried up by the wind, the black particles are deposited on the layers of ice. They absorb more heat than white snow or ice. The effect: less solar radiation is reflected back into the atmosphere, the ice heats up faster and melts.
Air Pollution Heats Up Mountains Even Faster
Experts point out that reducing air pollution would have a direct effect on melting glaciers. Above all, air pollution from brick ovens and cooking and heating with wood would have to be tackled. They alone are responsible for up to 66 percent of black carbon in the region, followed by diesel vehicles with an estimated seven to 18 percent.
“These people have to be resettled.”
Despite medium- and long-term possibilities to at least slow down the melting of the glaciers, Siddique Baig is bleak about the future. In the mountainous region of Pakistan, he estimates that seven million people are currently at risk from further flooding. “These people need to be relocated to other, safer places.”
Countries like Nepal hardly contribute to climate change themselves, but feel the full effects.
He sees the causes of global warming as primarily responsible. Stopping them “is not in our power.” Pakistan is responsible for the emission of just one percent of climate-damaging gases worldwide. Countries that are also affected, such as Afghanistan and Nepal, contribute only marginally to climate change with less than 0.05 percent, but suffer disproportionately from the consequences.
Baig's work at the High Mountain Institute requires him to regularly monitor the region's glaciers. But with the prospect of more flooding, destroyed villages, currently broken water pipes and the risk that drinking water could eventually run out, Baig has already made a decision for himself and his family. “One day we will move from here.”
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Completely dried up
The Sangone torrent, a tributary of the Po near Turin, is completely dry. After a prolonged period of drought, the Po River and its basin have a water flow rate of less than half of normal. The Po is considered the lifeline of northern Italy. According to current forecasts, sustained precipitation is still not in sight.
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They're not swimming anymore
The aerial view shows the Ponte delle Barche (Bridge of the Boats) in Bereguardo near Pavia in Lombardy and the low water level of the Ticino river in March 2022. The bridge was initially built as a temporary measure along the course of the Built following the river, with the supporting boats floating as the Ticino water level rose. Now they are on the ground and inevitably taking damage.
Mineral water for the plants
A man waters the plants in his garden Mineral water. 125 cities in the Piedmont and Lombardy regions have started rationing tap water. The government declared a national drought emergency to better combat the consequences of the worst drought in northern Italy in decades.
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Private well
Amid this drought disaster, Marina Piceno, 64, lies in an inflatable pool in her garden. The water for this comes from their private well. The state of emergency applies in some regions until the end of the year. The government promises financial aid to counteract the consequences of the water shortage.
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External tapping
In Levo, north-west of Milan, residents tap their drinking water from a public spring. In Milan, Verona and Pisa, among others, people were forbidden from washing cars, filling private swimming pools or watering gardens during the day. Drinking water should only be used for cooking, drinking and washing.
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Danger for grain cultivation
Luca Rizzotti shows rice grains as they appear immediately after harvest. Rice needs a lot of water for its life cycle and the area between Novara and Pavia is threatened by serious water shortages. About half of the harvest is at risk. This could also become an existential problem for many farmers and producers. Livestock breeders are also suffering from the drought.
Dried up inlets
This view shows the dried up river bed at the confluence of the Ticino and Po at Ponte della Becca, near Linarolo. The water level of the Po has never been lower since weather records began 70 years ago. Scientists have been warning of increasing drought in northern Italy for many years.
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Climate change is progressing
The rising temperatures as a result of climate change are also causing many glaciers to melt worldwide. Experts also see connections between the current high temperatures and the glacier fracture in the Dolomites on the Marmolada glacier a few days ago. At least seven people died in the accident.