Observers recently did not even rule out a war between the two neighbors. Now Rwanda and Congo want to approach each other. But they didn't reckon with the rebels of the M23.
Congolese soldiers on the way to the front in the fight against the M23 rebels
Most political agreements do not last forever – but the lifespan of the very first goal of the so-called roadmap was dramatically short. With Angolan mediation, the Presidents of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda, Felix Tshisekedi and Paul Kagame, decided to take steps to improve their relations.
In the six-point agreement, both sides committed to an “immediate withdrawal of the M23.” But the rebel group sent a signal that decisions cannot be made over their heads and carried out new attacks. “We are Congolese, not Rwandans,” M23 spokesman Willy Ngoma was quoted by the AFP news agency. “A ceasefire can only be agreed between us and the Congolese government.”
Has the latest attempt at peace in the conflict-torn region of East Africa failed before it even began?
Who are the M23 rebels?
The M23 were long considered a ghost of the past: in 2012, their fighters captured the city of Goma on Lake Kivu, which borders Rwanda. Blue helmet soldiers from the UN force MONUSCO pushed them back at the time; a year later the M23 disappeared from the scene. After the first signs of life at the end of 2021, there have been attacks again in recent months; among other things, the M23 took control of several villages in the Congolese border area.
One of the missions of the M23 is to protect Tutsi from ethnic violence in eastern Congo. The group is itself dominated by Tutsi – and is one of many armed groups that have brought further suffering to the Great Lakes region in the aftermath of the 1994 Rwandan genocide. At that time, radicalized Hutu had murdered around 800,000 Tutsi and moderate Hutu under the eyes of UN peacekeepers; The genocide was only ended by a Tutsi troop under the later Rwandan President Kagame.
“In the Congo, the M23 is equated with Rwanda. There are many facts that indicate that they receive support from outside: for example the very good military equipment of the M23,” says Jakob Kerstan, who heads the office of the German CDU-affiliated Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Kinshasa. After the emergence of the M23, an expert report commissioned by the United Nations even suggested such support from Rwanda.
Neither Congo nor Rwanda want war
The return of the M23 then also contributed to a deterioration in Congolese-Rwandan relations. Congo again accuses Rwanda of supporting the rebels, but this is denied from Kigali. The tensions between the two countries had grown so great in the past few months that even direct war had become a possibility: In February, Kagame complained about the activities of a Hutu militia in eastern Congo and threatened the assembled parliament with a military operation “with or without consent” from Kinshasa. The Congolese government, in turn, accused Rwanda of firing rockets across the border.
Bridging the gap: Kagame (r.) and Tshisekedi 2021 assess damage after an eruption of Nyiragongo
Ultimately, however, neither Kagame nor Tshisekedi would have an interest in letting the situation escalate further, Phil Clark, professor of international politics at SOAS University in London, told DW: “Both want a stable eastern Congo. Tshisekedi wants to protect the civilian population, Among other things, Kagame has Rwanda's economic interests in mind.” A possible escalation of violence endangers both.
New military attempt
In the short term, a new military intervention should stabilize the situation in the region: The East African Community (EAC) had in the so-called Nairobi Process decided to set up an intervention force under the leadership of Kenya. In the meantime, the fronts had hardened further when Kinshasa blocked the participation of Rwandan troops – in the meantime Rwanda gave up its resistance to the exclusion of its army.
Direct peace talks with the M23 are currently considered almost impossible. The people in the North Kivu region approach the central government with clear expectations, Marrion Ngavo, president of a local citizens' group, told DW: “The people want the enemy to be driven out by the army first.” Everything else can be discussed once the villages have been liberated from the attackers' violence.
Local residents are suffering: the resurgence of the M23 has forced thousands to flee
In an interview with DW, KAS office manager Kerstan dampens expectations of a new intervention: “I don't believe that the East African Community's intervention force can make a significant and, above all, rapid contribution to a decisive improvement in the situation.” At the same time, however, countries like Uganda and Kenya are interested in a stable Congo, “mainly for economic reasons, because it means new markets for them with up to 100 million consumers.” The DR Congo only joined the regional community at the end of March.
Urgently needed: a “comprehensive peace process”
At the same time, however, Uganda has also been accused of supporting certain militias in eastern Congo. Uganda and Rwanda are also said to make profits from the export of gold, coltan and other raw materials that were previously illegally transported across the border. Some analysts even believe that Uganda and Rwanda are using the various militias in eastern Congo – not only geographically distant from the influence of the central government in Kinshasa – for a proxy conflict.
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“A comprehensive peace process is needed in the region,” says the director of the Africa program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Mvemba Pheso Dizolele, in a DW interview: “We cannot deploy militias at our discretion, as is the case We like it. The leadership in Kigali should show real leadership and reach out to the Congolese to assuage resentments on both sides.”
A breath of fresh air from Angola and Kenya?
In fact, Kagame and Tshisekedi, mediated by Angolan President João Lourenço, appointed by the African Union, agreed on even more far-reaching points: at an extraordinary summit of the Great Lakes region, the progress of the agreement is to be reviewed; the neutral mediator Angola has the role of investigating mutual allegations. The Nairobi process started in the Kenyan capital is to be pushed further.
Mediator for East Africa: Angola's President Joao Lourenco (centre) on Wednesday with Kagame (left) and Tshisekedi
“I believe that greater interest from other players, such as Kenya, could bring new dynamics into the peace negotiations,” sums up KAS Congo expert Kerstan. “At the same time, it is a conflict that has been there for decades.” Many attempts at a solution have already failed – and at least in the short and medium term a settlement of the conflict is not foreseeable. It remains to be seen whether this will change with the new attempt.
Collaborators: Isaac Mugabe, Eddy Micah Jr., Zanem Nety Zaidi (Goma)