Ukraine's declared war goal is to expel Russian troops from its own territory. This includes the Crimean Peninsula, annexed by Russia in 2014. But how realistic is a recapture?
18 kilometers long, worth hundreds of billions of rubles and of extreme importance for Russian supplies: That is the Crimean Bridge, which connects the peninsula in the east, which is so hotly contested between Russia and Ukraine, with the Russian mainland. After the annexation of the peninsula in 2014, Moscow planned and built the bridge, which houses both a four-lane highway and a parallel train connection, in a very short time. The construction of the bridge was given priority over almost all other major Russian transport infrastructure projects. Since 2018, it has been connecting the city of Kerch, located in the extreme east of Crimea, with the Russian peninsula of Taman.
In fact, the bridge is of great strategic importance for Russia: it ensures supplies for Russian troops on the peninsula and throughout southern Ukraine. Not least because of this, it has long been a thorn in the side of the Ukrainian army. So far, however, the bridge has been out of reach for them. However, that could now change. If Ukraine gets the necessary weapons any time soon, said Ukrainian General Dmytro Marchenko, destroying the bridge would be “goal number one”.
Risk of further escalation
Moscow has already threatened severe retaliation if this were to happen, even suggesting a resumption of airstrikes on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. In fact, for Russia, bombing targets in Crimea would have a different meaning than the war in Donbass or the rest of Ukraine. Because Moscow regards the peninsula, which was annexed in violation of international law in 2014, as its very own national territory and, following an internationally unrecognized referendum, as part of the Russian Federation. According to the Russian interpretation, the war would thus be extended to Russian territory – threatening a further escalation of the war.
However, Ukraine also continues to regard Crimea as its national territory. “We will liberate all of our territories, really all of them, including Crimea,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov told US broadcaster CNN – even if it was “the realistic minimum” for the Russian forces to reach the borders that were valid before February 24,” according to his adviser Yuriy Sak.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Olexej Reznikov
Always controversial
The Kremlin's sharp reaction has its reasons: For Moscow, Crimea has a higher value than the rest of Ukraine. Crimea was part of Russia for more than two centuries. As early as the 18th and 19th centuries, the Tsars increasingly settled ethnic Russians there. Stalin continued this policy; therefore the clear majority of the population is pro-Russian to this day. It was not until 1954 that Crimea was annexed to the Ukrainian SSR by order of the then Soviet Secretary General, Nikita Khrushchev, under circumstances that have not been fully clarified to this day. The reason may have been that Khrushchev himself was a native Ukrainian. After the collapse of the USSR, Crimea remained officially Ukrainian territory, even though Kyiv was never able to assert its claim to power and the majority of the population remained pro-Russian. For example, Kyiv granted the peninsula autonomy status – and concluded lease agreements with Russia – for example for the strategically important port in Sevastopol.
The headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet had already been located there in Soviet times – and Sevastopol is also the only significant port used by Russia that remains safely ice-free all year round. It offered military access to the Black Sea, and it brought many important goods into the country economically. This agreement between Ukraine and Russia did not pose a major problem until 2014. But then the Euromaidan began in Kyiv – the pro-Russian President Yanukovych was overthrown and had to flee to Moscow. Suddenly, the Kremlin saw the danger of losing Sevastopol and the entire Crimea to the Western defense alliance in the long term if Ukraine turned to the West and especially to NATO – and decided to annex the country in violation of international law.
The Russian frigate “Admiral Makarov” is part of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and has its home port in Sevastopol
Fragile connection
Russia is trying to consolidate this further in the war that has now flared up. In addition to conquering the Donbass, the Kremlin declared the creation of a Russian-occupied land corridor from there to Crimea to be one of its most important war goals. In fact, without the bridge over the Kerch Strait, the peninsula was previously inaccessible by land from Russian territory. All supplies to the approximately 2.3 million inhabitants have so far come from the sea or over this bridge. With further conquests in southern Ukraine, Putin would also create further facts: A return to the status before the annexation would become virtually impossible. Ukraine would be completely cut off from access to the Sea of Azov, and with Crimea jutting out into the Black Sea like a giant wedge, Russia would also be able to control and cut off all shipping traffic bound for Ukraine's last remaining Black Sea port, Odessa. The fierce fighting for the small island of snakes off the Romanian coast also shows that this is also a Russian war aim. >
Supplies for the Russian troops in southern Ukraine are rolling from Crimea
Realistic return?
In Ukraine, however, there is uncertainty as to how far one would go to return Crimea as well brought under Ukrainian control. The return of the peninsula is “an issue that needs to be negotiated diplomatically,” government adviser Sak said. Militarily, President Selenskyj is also clear that a reconquest is considered virtually impossible, even under better omens than at present: “I think that would mean hundreds of thousands of casualties on our side,” Zelenskyj told the US news portal “Axios”. . How a possible return is to be achieved by negotiation is so far completely unclear. Due to the current balance of power, the strategic importance of Crimea, but also due to the clear loyalty of the vast majority of its inhabitants to Russia, it seems quite absurd at the moment.